Is it possible to forecast how many seats the government and the opposition will get in the National Assembly on the basis of National-level polls? It’s a tough problem, but ahead of the 2010 National Assembly election, we showed it can be done. And this year, with a little help from our friends over at Distortioland,…
A new poll in Venezuela is showing continued deterioration in Venezuelans’ perceptions of their country, and of President Nicolás Maduro. The Venebarómetro poll, done by respected pollster Ivad in conjunction with Croes, Gutiérrez & Asociados, shows a worsening of the trends for Nicolás Maduro: 84% of Venezuelans think the situation in the country is “bad,” 57% of Venezuelans…
Over in El Universal, Puzkas has a scoop on CNE’s plans to redraw the National Assembly district boundaries to eliminate a number of safe oppo seats. El proyecto, facilitado por técnicos electorales del PSUV disminuye la cantidad de diputados que se escogen la circunscripción 2 de Miranda, la cantidad de diputados tipo lista en el Distrito…
Legislative Elections are meant to take place later this year, replacing the National Assembly chosen in 2010 with a new cohort. These elections should, by any reckoning, be the central political event of the year. There’s just one rub: they probably won’t happen. I’m out on a limb here. By indefinitely postponing a vote, Maduro would be…
Two new polls continue to show that support for the Maduro government has never been softer. The first one is from Datanálisis. Obviously, one of the slides that jumps out is the one showing that support for Maduro has never been this low. Nevertheless, we should be careful. While the opposition is currently more popular than chavismo,…
Happy Monday, everyone. A new poll in my Inbox today, this one from IVAD which, as you probably know, usually leans toward the government in its numbers. The highlights: 77% of those polled think the government is headed in the wrong direction; 82.5% say the country is mired in an economic crisis; 78.9% think the country is…
Two recent polls from opposing pollsters (one leans chavista, the other leans opposition) suggest patience with the protests is wearing thin. IVAD, a local pollster that has long leaned towards the government, says that roughly half of Venezuelans want the protests to stop, and this figure is slightly higher than those that agree with the protests. On the other…
Sure sounds like it. He has designated December 8th, the day of the upcoming local election in Venezuela, as a “Day of Loyalty and Love for Chávez and the Fatherland.” I kid you not. The stated rationale behind this bizarre move is that December 8th, 2012, was the day of Hugo Chávez’s last speech,…
Whatever you think about J.J. Rendón, the legendary Venezuelan political consultant now working with Henrique Capriles, this interview with Jaime Bayly is entertaining as hell. (In Spanish) Part 2 here. Part 3 here.
From two different sources I learn that Credit Suisse is quoting a recent Datanálisis survey putting Maduro’s lead over Capriles at 9.7 points. This is down from about 15 points a few days ago. The margin of error is +-2.66%. The Swiss bank believes the race is tightening quickly, but not quickly enough for Capriles…
Estimados Consultores 21, I read your communiqué published yesterday with some confusion, and the distinct sense that you really haven’t grasped the full magnitude of the damage last Sunday did to your firm’s reputation. I’m afraid bland assurances that you acted professionally and broad assertions of your staff’s professionalism fall far short of an adequate response…
Readers of this blog know that for the past few weeks, we (mostly me, really) have raised serious doubts about Datanálisis’ poll predictions. At the same time, we relied on Consultores 21’s projection that Capriles was ahead. The results were a clear endorsement of Datanálisis, who predicted the outcome pretty nicely, and a serious embarassment…
Electoral Council President Tibisay Lucena says that she will block web pages that violate the law by “publishing results.” On what basis does this woman become the arbiter of the Internet? Who is *she* to say what I can or cannot publish … from abroad? Why is she the arbiter of the information Venezuelans get?…
… is that they’re crap. In fact, I don’t even know how many there are out there. They lead to misleading results, and they screw up expectations all the time. Don’t waste your time with them, even if they contain good news.
Over on YVPolis, Iñaki Sararzazu has a last word on Venezuelan public opinion research in 2012, and that word is: appolling! Getting beyond the ulcer-inducing guessing game about which one is right and which one is wrong, Iñaki gets at the bigger problem: pollsters just don’t release enough information for us to make an educated…
Caracas Chronicles 