Full screen version here. Big Hat Tip: OS Guido

(A joint publication by Caracas Chronicles, Prodavinci, and Análisis Venezuela.) Por Francisco Monaldi, Profesor del IESA y la UCAB Como estaba previsto, las elecciones legislativas de 2010 resultaron en una sobrerrepresentación importante del oficialismo en la Asamblea Nacional: 49% de los votos obtenidos por el oficialismo a nivel nacional se tradujeron en cerca de 60%…

Last Sunday’s election left us with a multitude of interesting story lines. One of the more intriguing ones is the future role the Chavista-splinter party Patria Para Todos, the PPT. The PPT broke with Hugo Chávez a while ago over its refusal to disband and join the ruling PSUV party. Down on their luck and…

With all circuits adjudicated – not counting the zaperoco in Carabobo 5 – it’s PSUV 98, MUD 65, PPT 2: http://maps.google.com/maps?q=http:%2F%2Fwww.geoitconsult.com%2Fdemo%2F2010elections.kml&ie=UTF8&source=embed&ll=7.885147,-67.412109&spn=10.866443,13.183594&z=5&output=embed View Larger Map

I’m going to be guarding the blog for the rest of the day. You can also follow my twitter feed for more up-to-date information. A few nuggets I’ve been getting (sorry, no links): 1. I hear from the Guarenas-Guatire circuit that turnout in middle-class areas is good, but turnout in less wealthy areas is poor.…

Increasing signs that the chavista platform this election is simply to … exterminate (murder?) the opposition. Lovely.  

Through the course of the day, you’re sure to hear a number of rumors about results in individual circuits. Maybe you’ll hear that a Quick Count has the opposition winning Anzoateguí 1 (El Tigre) with 54% of the vote…but is that good news or bad news? The list after the jump tells you the share…

Just so we’re clear on how big an ask that 26S Victory Map I keep on the right-hand column is, I thought we should review what the "Circuit-by-Circuit" results have been in the last 3 votes. After the jump, you can see three maps that vividly illustrate the alarming and deepening concentration of oppo votes…

The BBC’s Will Grant gets in on the  election preview action (and very kindly throws a link my way, too!) The days of super-concentrated portrayals of the opposition as a bunch of tropical Keystone Cops seem decidedly on the wane, and thank God for that. (BTW, Will, any chance we can get the Claire Boldersons of…

1. Each of the TV talking heads will say the phrases "jornada cívica", "con toda normalidad" and "ejercer su derecho al sufragio" at least 200 times over the length of the day, pausing only to ritually praise the vote as a "muestra de civismo". 2. Some fool is going to screw it up in the voting booth,…

The ads have been aired. The washing machines have been handed out. You know what that means: time to predict the outcome. Lately, there has been much discussion about polling, more so than usual. Because of our heavily gerrymandered districts and our convoluted, not-quite-proportional voting method, it has been difficult to poll this election, and…

The Economist has a nice long article on the upcoming election. The money quote: "Jesse Chacón, a former interior minister who now runs GIS XXI, reckons that the government can retain a two-thirds majority in the assembly with only 52% of the vote. He says that even if the votes were evenly split, the government…

Colombian media is reporting that the Colombian army has killed FARC military leader El Mono Jojoy. If confirmed, this would be a major coup for the Santos administration. Foreign correspondents covering Latin American presidential summits are feverishly hoping and praying the Colombian government captured Jojoy’s laptop as well. Prominent chavistas keep dropping like flies. Weird,…

Considering how much chavistas bitch about foreign press bias, it’s easy to overlook just how brutal foreign journos are with the Venezuelan opposition. Focused on whatever crazy thing Chávez last did, reporters often deal with the opposition in extreme short-hand: one or two sentences that inevitably include adjectives like "fractured" and "hapless". That’s why Frank Daniel’s…

Isn’t that just typical? After a weeks-long polling drought, the second survey of the night just popped into my inbox. Varianzas is showing a headline figure of 48% for the government, 47% for the opposition, 5% don’t know. Everyone else is getting far higher numbers for "don’t know/haven’t decided/won’t say", so I assume that 5%…