You know, everyone keeps trying to quantify something which has different definitions depending on the discipline trying to quantify it.
I think hyperinflation should be defined (non-quantifiable) as a point where rational market mechanisms break down and irrational transactions take place, which in turn spur inflation.
I have two issues with the black market rate:
1). The source. Highly localized and not without the possibility of collusion or distortions. Yes, I get that its about the only thing available. That still doesn’t make it 100% infallible and the country (and media, for that matter) is, in essence, being captured by a reported exchange rate that is highly susceptible to manipulation.
2). Despite the decline in reserves, the recent burst through 400 and now 500 still seems to be distorted relative to previous changes/rates. Previously, there were no equivalent jumps, as I recall, when reserves declined substantially. Maybe its real, maybe it isn’t.
Maybe we are at the point that borders that razor edge between rational and irrational exchanges.
When “you’re running on fumes (RD dixit)”, big jumps are to be expected; from the chart above, we see equal/greater % jumps in previous similar time frames, beginning with the collapse in oil pricing/income.
Actually, with the exception of the most recent spurt, most of the previous jumps have been tied to polieconomic announcements, not actual economic outcomes. Note the advent of SICAD2, the announcement of non-existent reforms (including SIMADI) and the actual introduction of SIMADI. Going back further, this is also manifested in electoral movements as election outcomes developed.
Bear in mind that a jump from 90 to 105 is greater, percentage wise, than a jump from 350 to 400.
Y un sueldo minimo vale 7 y medio millones de bolivares (muchos pobres piensan/hablan asi), quizas para ser 10 millones para las elecciones (a 1000/$=$10)….
Probably an unaswerable question but Is there a way of relating the rate of devaluation of the Bs vs the USD to the Inflation Rate considering the countrys dendence on imported goods and services??
Nosotros lo que usamo es el Bolival, broder, y lo que impolta es el Podel Adquisitibo, mi pana, ma’naa. Si suben las vainas con la inflasion, choriamos un poco mas, par de Tigritos y listo el pollo.
Y si se acaban la celvesa y el pan este mes, tomamos ron con casabe ;e yuca. Chaves vive!
and notice that their Ven/Dollar rate is always within a penny or two of DolarToday’s “Efectivo” rate (the Cucuta rate minus commission). I don’t know if bitcoun simply uses the DolarToday data to set their prices, or if it is the result of super-efficient arbitrage. If it is arbitrage it would seem to be a good verification of DolarToday.
I’m sure they are using that, or something similar, as a reference and tying it in to the bitcoin/dollar rate. Bitcoin has a lot of variability in its exchange versus the dollar, so a pinned rate that close with little lag would have to be tied to something.
Fun anecdote: In 2010 or 11, I forget which, I subbed for a colleague in his Money and Banking class. That week was the nature of money and its historical development. I brought in several examples of currency that I keep as a collection, (Roman coins, celtic rings, and more modern stuff, like old Brazilian cruzeiros/cruzados, Russian rubles, Italian lira) and as a lark, I bought a dozen bit coins for $40 or so, as a demonstration of future currency possibilities on flash drive. When it was over, I tossed stick with the other money back in its little box and forgot about it. 4 years later, I heard about the exchange value ($950 at the time), and spent a long night trying to find what happened to them.
I would like to say that I profited mightily. However, my wife, true to her Venezuelan soul, figured out their value and faster than I could say, “expropriese!” had a new down payment on her car…
Dolal today y el Eje Miami-Bogota-Madrid desencadenaron las lluvias magnisidas contra nuestro pueblo en Apure a traves de sus satelites y el intelnet ese. Mardito imperio!
Eso e correcto, mi llave, la chamba esta fina paya en Apure. Los bachaqueros estan aprendiendo a nadal, broder, eso esta candela. Ley de la ofelta y la demanda mas el flete pol inundasion. Negosio redondo.
Es más, el negocio está tan bueno, que están vendiéndole sobres de “vaso de leche escolar” a la gente, sólo para darse cuenta que están llenos de AGUA.
Caracas Chronicles 
Oof. Time for a Bolivar Superfuerte. :-/
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Ok, now are we in hyperinflation?
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No
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You know, everyone keeps trying to quantify something which has different definitions depending on the discipline trying to quantify it.
I think hyperinflation should be defined (non-quantifiable) as a point where rational market mechanisms break down and irrational transactions take place, which in turn spur inflation.
I have two issues with the black market rate:
1). The source. Highly localized and not without the possibility of collusion or distortions. Yes, I get that its about the only thing available. That still doesn’t make it 100% infallible and the country (and media, for that matter) is, in essence, being captured by a reported exchange rate that is highly susceptible to manipulation.
2). Despite the decline in reserves, the recent burst through 400 and now 500 still seems to be distorted relative to previous changes/rates. Previously, there were no equivalent jumps, as I recall, when reserves declined substantially. Maybe its real, maybe it isn’t.
Maybe we are at the point that borders that razor edge between rational and irrational exchanges.
LikeLike
When “you’re running on fumes (RD dixit)”, big jumps are to be expected; from the chart above, we see equal/greater % jumps in previous similar time frames, beginning with the collapse in oil pricing/income.
LikeLike
Actually, with the exception of the most recent spurt, most of the previous jumps have been tied to polieconomic announcements, not actual economic outcomes. Note the advent of SICAD2, the announcement of non-existent reforms (including SIMADI) and the actual introduction of SIMADI. Going back further, this is also manifested in electoral movements as election outcomes developed.
Bear in mind that a jump from 90 to 105 is greater, percentage wise, than a jump from 350 to 400.
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But Mark Weisbrot said…
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More recently, he was saying that Greece is fine too.
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Where is Chris Carlson when you need him?
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He needs to get paid before he will perform.
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Para ponerlo en términos que hubiese entendido mi abuelita (qepd), un dolar vale medio millón de bolivares…
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Y un sueldo minimo vale 7 y medio millones de bolivares (muchos pobres piensan/hablan asi), quizas para ser 10 millones para las elecciones (a 1000/$=$10)….
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Probably an unaswerable question but Is there a way of relating the rate of devaluation of the Bs vs the USD to the Inflation Rate considering the countrys dendence on imported goods and services??
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Is 2015 the year where the dollar will reach 700 and inflation 180%? .. OMG!
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700? 700 by the end of summer, think 1000
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Time to start using plots with a logarithmic Y-axis.
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Que se joda el Dolal del Imperio, chamo.
Nosotros lo que usamo es el Bolival, broder, y lo que impolta es el Podel Adquisitibo, mi pana, ma’naa. Si suben las vainas con la inflasion, choriamos un poco mas, par de Tigritos y listo el pollo.
Y si se acaban la celvesa y el pan este mes, tomamos ron con casabe ;e yuca. Chaves vive!
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Oye Wilmel
No sea bulda e bolsa papa, si ahora lo que paga es secuestra en dolare mi broder!
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Chamooo Wilmel, se toma Pela E’ Perro (cana blanca con jugo e parchita), broder–se te olvido tu opbring?
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Reblogged this on TROZAN.
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500 is a nice round number for Inter-Galactic Money Laundering operations. Makes life easier for everyone.
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It is a nice number for doing the mental arithmetic. But, it won’t last long.
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1,000 or 10,000 or even 100,000 or 1,000,000 are even nicer numbers. Can our incompetents obtain those numbers?
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Zimbabwe beat us by far; And Honduras is better in crime.
Cubazuela is not even #1 in MegaGuisos, all things considered, Iraq, North Korea and even Haiti are better Master Thieves.
And the Empire has more Miss Universes, and even more oil now too.
Chupate esa mandarina!
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I have been checking the bitcoin rates published at:
http://bitcoinvenezuela.com
and notice that their Ven/Dollar rate is always within a penny or two of DolarToday’s “Efectivo” rate (the Cucuta rate minus commission). I don’t know if bitcoun simply uses the DolarToday data to set their prices, or if it is the result of super-efficient arbitrage. If it is arbitrage it would seem to be a good verification of DolarToday.
Maybe someone knows more about bitcoin than I do.
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Correct that. I should have said, “I am SURE someone knows more about bitcoin than I do.”
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I’m sure they are using that, or something similar, as a reference and tying it in to the bitcoin/dollar rate. Bitcoin has a lot of variability in its exchange versus the dollar, so a pinned rate that close with little lag would have to be tied to something.
For example: the bitcoin rate has moved nearly $5 in the last 24 hours. https://www.coinbase.com/charts
Fun anecdote: In 2010 or 11, I forget which, I subbed for a colleague in his Money and Banking class. That week was the nature of money and its historical development. I brought in several examples of currency that I keep as a collection, (Roman coins, celtic rings, and more modern stuff, like old Brazilian cruzeiros/cruzados, Russian rubles, Italian lira) and as a lark, I bought a dozen bit coins for $40 or so, as a demonstration of future currency possibilities on flash drive. When it was over, I tossed stick with the other money back in its little box and forgot about it. 4 years later, I heard about the exchange value ($950 at the time), and spent a long night trying to find what happened to them.
I would like to say that I profited mightily. However, my wife, true to her Venezuelan soul, figured out their value and faster than I could say, “expropriese!” had a new down payment on her car…
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Haha! As my (ex)wife, from West Virginia, USA, used to say, “What good is having money if you never spend it?”
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I think 500 (and beyond), they are very cool numbers…
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There was a TV show about Venezuela on Brazilian TV yesterday. Venezuela is now a mainstream theme…
(Part 1)
http://www.redetv.uol.com.br/jornalismo/redetvnews/videos/documento-verdade/venezuela-sofre-com-falta-de-produtos-basicos
(Part 2)
http://www.redetv.uol.com.br/jornalismo/redetvnews/videos/documento-verdade/ex-ministro-venezuelano-critica-depedencia-do-petroleo
At the minute 6:40 of the second part they show the ammount of Bolivars required to buy $100. Unbelievable stuff…
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Ese Boilvar Fuerte se ve muy debil.
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Seguimos esperando a que la teoría de que dolar today quiere tumbar al chavismo se cumpla:
¿¿PA’ CUÁNDO LLEGA EL DÓLAR A 5.000 BS??
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Dolal today y el Eje Miami-Bogota-Madrid desencadenaron las lluvias magnisidas contra nuestro pueblo en Apure a traves de sus satelites y el intelnet ese. Mardito imperio!
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On that topic, I hear that nothing sells in Apure like relief aid from the bolivarian militias.
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Eso e correcto, mi llave, la chamba esta fina paya en Apure. Los bachaqueros estan aprendiendo a nadal, broder, eso esta candela. Ley de la ofelta y la demanda mas el flete pol inundasion. Negosio redondo.
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Es más, el negocio está tan bueno, que están vendiéndole sobres de “vaso de leche escolar” a la gente, sólo para darse cuenta que están llenos de AGUA.
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qué más queda? será ahogar las penas en cacique 500
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Fun fact: When Chavez began in 99, the exchange rate was at 573Bs/$… it looks like it’ll be there again very soon.
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It’s about there right now. 569.
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Oops! It’s NOT ILLEGAL anymore to say a price different from the stupid 6,3 one:
http://www.elmundo.com.ve/noticias/economia/politicas-publicas/publicar-tasa-no-oficial-del-dolar-queda-sin-sanci.aspx#ixzz3fLY1IHTl
Now, maburro and his cronies will remain as apeshit crazy, ’cause he signed that decree.
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