It’s been a week since the Diosdado/Shannon picture show and we’ve read many hypothesis over what had to happen to get that photo opp.
Both Jackson Diehl and Heinz Dietrich believe it had to do with Leopoldo Lopez’s release. While Diehl says the US is looking to release tension on the region by the release of Lopez, Dietrich looks at it more like a prisoner exchange of the sorts: give us the political prisoner and we’ll give you the alleged drug lord we never really had anyway.
Others believe that the meeting was more focused on getting a date for the upcoming National Assembly elections. According to Fernando del Rincón, the man flew to Haiti just to plea his case before the US.
But my personal favorite is the one about Diosdado photobombing Thomas Shannon and Delcy Rodríguez because that’s just something he would do to confuse everyone and keep us guessing.
If you’ve ever watched his TV show you’d know that he is fond of trickery, including photoshopping and phone tapping, to make up tall tales of conspiracy. Plots that are so obviously made up that, in the end, it’s clear he just did it so you know he knows that you know it’s just a bad fabrication. Evil shit. The President of the Venezuelan National Assembly is driven by the most dangerous and dark motivations that can be found in the world: those of an 8 year old bully.
The most recent Diosdado shenanigan involves a picture with Fidel Castro. Cuban pro government blog, Cuba Debate, posted the picture along with a short article, and a while later took it down.
Apart from the unlikely circumstances in which it was taken, there seems to be something off with the picture. It appears to be dated, and both subjects look out of place. Cuban blogger Yusnaby says that most of the recent pictures of Fidel are taken by his son and published by Estudios Revolución. Would the Cubans use Diosdado for a Fidel sighting? It’s just fishy.
But then again, all of Diosdado’s pictures look photoshopped these days. Maybe it’s just the filter, and the man is laughing at us once again.
You be the judge.
Caracas Chronicles 
Yeah, the drug kingpin’s laughing and all that, very pretty, nothing new under the sun.
The important thing to face the upcoming elections would be that the opposition has the chance to build the easiest narrative ever, since according to some people, that’s been the only thing keeping the chavismo in power through “fair and square” elections (Emphasis on those “s)
chavismo’s campaign has fell straight into the “you’re all gonna die if you don’t vote for us!”, “Adriana Urquiola was murdered by the fag sifrino ultra rightwing escualidos” and “let’s destroy the Polar so the marginals can finally stop making lines!”
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There appears to be a widespread belief, circulating among opposition supporters, that the hunger strike is a complete fabrication. The whole country is wrapped in a cloud of misinformation, rumor, wild theories and speculation.
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Well, nothing else to be expected from chavismo and their lunatic propaganda.
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The DDC/Shannon meeting is a vexer because the US is fairly tight-lipped on the confab and calls for clarification haven’t produced much to anyone’s satisfaction. So I asked a friend in high places what was up and he said this: The US is very aggressive per business, per making money, and since the early 1950s, Venezuela has been a cash cow for many US companies, especially big oil. That business has essentially dried up because in a socialist regime, only the government has business rights. Look at the mess with Polar. Anyhow, if business is to return to normal, you first have to get an election which can lead to the bush driver getting voted out of office, then you have to have a charismatic and competent new jefe who is schooled in western ways (LL went to Harvard) and Lopez fits that bill better than Capriles-Radonski, who is basically a highly-skilled tax attorney turned politician. So in some strange calculus, the US wants to keep LL alive, wants the election to be called, wants Maduro voted out and Lopez installed and eventually for business to start back up. Sure, there is the business of routing out socialism and human rights and so forth, but the US is all about vested interests and these – an election date, Maduro out, LL in, and a return to Ven/Yankee profitability – are the touchstones.
So what is in it for DDC, and why call him?
If the evidence against DDC is real, he’s in the same bind as Pineapple Face was in Panama, who ended up in an American jail for years. So they had some leverage. My friend is not sure or wasn’t saying what deal they might have discussed, but it is worth noting that shortly on the heels of this meeting an election date was announced and both Maduro and Shit-for-Brains Tiby sounded bitter about it and threatened chaos and hellfire.
Novela Loca. Hell if I know what is really happening. I just keep trying to work out things in my head because I have immediate family still in Caraca, Anaco and Valencia.
JL
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In this case, these goals all line up:
-Restoring human rights/democracy
-Avoiding a failed state in the hemisphere, particularly one where China already has a big presence and will continue to pillage the natural resources.
-Opening up for business
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Juan Largo,
It’s as good a theory as any and better than most.
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We certainly enjoy indulging in wild flights of fantasy , of course conspiracy theories are always the favourites specially if spiced with the very jaded but always ‘exciting’ idea that the main motivator is the gross appetite for meany money and of course the great boundless oil bounty underneath Venezuelas soil. (if they only knew how little oil is worth depending on what it cost to get it out of the ground and into the world markets)
We sentimental and imaginative venezuelans love the stuff of telenovelas so much , that we cant stay away from interpreting our reality in terms of juicy soap operas.
The most clear succint statement which I ve ever heard from US businessmen about Venezuela came from a guy working with a big investment firm which said ‘we are going short on Venezuela’, this was 10 years ago . They dont think about us that much , we are small fry in a big world teeming with great business opportunities , we could sink under the earth and most US businessmen wouldnt even become aware of the fact , except as a 2 line byline in the WSJ. But to ourselves we are the centre of the Universe.
Govts of course dont like it when they have mesy chaotic condition in their neighborhood or regimes that loudly proclaim themselves your enemy . Its human , they dont like it , and if the pickings even if low come from a low hunging fruit tree , they make their moves .
The main worry for a businessmen right now , if you are a creditor , one fo those the regime owes 145 billion dollars to , is how will they get their money when default is declared sometime in 2016. Thats what also should be in our mind , whats going to happen then ?? Everybody knows its going to happen but no one pays any attention to it , to what the consequences are likely to be !!
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The problem with pure speculation is that once we invent a theory, or buy into someone else’s theory, we then tend to ignore evidence pointing to a more valid theory. When we absolutely DO NOT KNOW it is better to just leave it at that, until some new evidence comes along to to suggest a real theory.
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La Oración del Tabaco de la Reina Maria Lionza no falla ni miente. Ya me entere de todo lo que paso en aquella isla pantanosa del Voodoo..
El Imperio y Diosdado tienen al Cacique Nicolas en la mira. La carta suprema del Tarot arroja el colgado de la traicion, escape abominable. Por eso estamos en Alerta Roja contra cualquier Mangocidio Madurista, y tampoco volamos en aviones empavados desde Haiti, Eje del Triangulo macabro de todos los hechizos.
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Que vaina, como inventan guevonaas estos sifrinitos exiliados de Dolar Tudey.. Lo unico que hago es practicar estrategias de Guerra basicas de los Chinos: echar humo, mojonear y decepcionar..
http://www.digitalattic.org/home/war/artofwar/deception.php
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/25/us-venezuela-oil-crime-insight-idUSKBN0P51G020150625
http://panampost.com/panam-staff/2015/06/24/venezuelan-paramilitaries-wreak-havoc-with-cuban-farc-support/
Patria y Paz!
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Methinks that the pic is photoshopped. Not only Fidel looks quite weird on it, but he’s wearing shorts – and that doesn’t look right.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynamic_Airways
South Korea, Guyana, China involved.. “Privately Owned” charters since 2010, Used Airplanes, Direct Air subsequently filing for bankruptcy. It ceased operations completely shortly after, having been found to have racked up millions in debts. The MD-88 was returned to Dynamic Airways as a result.
New owners in 2013….. Cubazuelans by any chance??
MegaGuisos Cubazuela’s investigation is in process.
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The chaburro tweets in response gave me instant eye cancer
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My “theory” was simply information from a person I know who works in the State Department. It isn’t so much of a theory as an MO – and the US has always looked at South America as a business opportunity. Bill, I have no idea what businessman was telling you the US didn’t care about the dough it was pulling out of Ven a decade ago, but you don’t know much about Americans if you believe it. And big companies like car manufacturers, Proctor and Gamble, Johnson and Johnson, parm outfits like Searl, to say nothing of the engineering and oil extraction joins, were making a piece of change in Ven for ages. Restoring business is not the only reason, nor yet is it a guess or a conspiracy theory because keeping the dollars running between hands is a crucial part of American foreign policy. The reason we have so little to do with Africa (excepting Nigeria and Libiya) is there is no money in those places. Same as Haiti, the DR, and on down the line. As has been polintd out on other lists, human rights, an immigration rush possibly running into the millions, narco shenanigans, and having a knucklehead running a country in your neighborhood are all contributing factors. But if you don’t think that “following the money” does not describe lasting American policy, you simly have never lived there. In a broader context, you could look at this in terms of resources, money AND energy (read oil). Take those out of he equation and you have Cuba – an annoyance, but nothing anyone (save expat Cubanos) much cares about. Another angle is to know that America is looking to limit how much they have to PAY for the collapse of Venezuela. You can’t have that kind of economic implosion and not have bordering coutries feel the fallout. While it is clearly too little too late, my sense of this is that the US is growing increasinglyu concerned that Ven will turn into the Greece of the Americas, and the bailout will be Americas problem to some extent. Damage contol means getting the bus driver the hell out of there and getting an English speaking sharpie like LL in office. And soon.
Of course all angles of inquiry are simplistic when presented alone. But painting US economic interests as a “conspiracy theory” is IMO not a well-considered position, Bill.
JL
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Sorry Juan , its always difficult to express things with the necessary nuance when the space is short so you tend to simplify and some things get short changed which shouldnt have .
I have had for a long time a much closer aquaintances with international businesses than you might think but with govts (specially with their foreing affairs establishment) sometimes its different , they can be irrational or misjudge things or have other priorities in mind . For one I dont disagree that the ‘follow the money principle’ can be important in modelling foreign policy in the US , but in a case like Venezuela I tend to think the picture is much more complex involving many different factors beyond the purely commercial . Chavistas have always affirmed with great relish that all that the US cares about Venezela has to do with its oil , that they are purely venal in the way they see Venezuela , that they care nothing about Venezuelan democracy or its peoples lives. When you appear to echo that view I tend to react to that !!
If you talk to US officials or others knowldegeable about latin america and Venezuela you are bound to get some people whose views are those which your friend gave you , but at the same time there will be others which have more sophisiticated and complicated things to say about the way US foreign policy works, how sometimes its opportunistic ,sometimes strategic, sometimes cunning and sometimes unknowingly dumb. For one Im not sure we figure so prominently in the image many in US offciadom have of latin america and its importance , Mexico and Brasil always loom large in their thinking , other countries dont really count that much except in certain situations.
Also the Venezuela that we have now is not the crazed importer of big ticket items it use to be , in fact its flat broke , the oil industry is not the same which produced so much business in the past , it will take a long time even if the regime changes to get commercial excchanges back to normal . Venezuela is currently in arrears in paying many of its obligations and is bound to remain a place of much financial confusion for a while . Restoring the old Venezuela will need alot of help from international companies and there will certainly be business opportunities once the chance arises to begin such restoration . But Market conditions have also changed quite a bit in the world and the US will have to share opportunities with businesses from other part of the world.
Ive found your latest writing much more informative and interesting than the first . richer in its outlook of what motivate the US govt and the many people influencing the US foreign policy in its treatment of Venezuela . thanks for that !!
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The photo looks wrong. It does seem photoshopped. lgg2011 said Fidel Castro has on shorts and does not seem to be an outfit that he would use for such an occasion and Diosdado’s chair seems to be too close to the wall.
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Thanks, Bill. Fact is I’m up here in the US sweating bullets with family still scattered all over Venezuela and I dash off stuff as a kind of catharsis.
What makes the whole America – Venezuela bonche so slippery is that Obama adopted a hands-off policy with most countries save Iraq and Afghanistan, and this confused everyone. Granted, Venezuela was never a business partner on par with Germany or England but a hell of a lot of oil was exchanged (and greenbacks) and a lot of Chamos went to school here. We had a thing going on.
Once Chavez got rolling, US-Venezuela relations soured because Chavez needed someone to push off, and “Imperial” powers were to blame for everything. Castro was just sounding off and Chavez bought it. And the US did some nasty shit in Cuba.
Bottom line is the relationship is in drastic need of repair and I believe the US gov thinks Lopez is their best and most expedient shot. It starts with getting an election on the books so the bus driver can be yanked off stage with a cane.
Exactly how DDC was hooked up to facilitate that is anyone’s guess but as noted, shortly after her met with Shannon, the election date was announced.
One things is for sure – Maduro is seen as a person nobody can talk to, even former allies. DDC is much more jiggy with the military, who hold most of the power right now. If DDC is the only man in power who can talk, then he was Shannon’s man by default. So else would he talk to?
The whole wonky business reminds us of the chequered relationship the US had with Manuel Antonio Noriega , who was the big general and de facto ruler of Panama from 1983 to 1989 . Soon a dictator, he plunged the country into a dire economic, political and social crisis, while providing services to the Medellin cartel . He was also a CIA stooge to some extent and played both sides of the fence.
Frickin’ Novela Loca. Who the hell can sort it out, really, because everyone is just winging it.
JL
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