This is not productive
The date for the Parliamentary elections has not been announced, but for the sake of argument, let’s say the CNE will follow the law and hold them this year. If that assumption holds, we’re getting closer and closer to another election in Venezuela.
As the date nears, we’ve begun hearing the same voices we always hear, saying stuff like:
“The opposition is in cahoots with the government.”
“Why vote if they are all the same thing?”
“Why vote if the CNE controls everything?”
“Voting is not worth it, there is no chance these people will ever let go of power by the ballot box.”
Now, let’s assume the worst case scenario. Let’s assume that, indeed, most of the opposition is in cahoots with the government, most of the opposition is made up of a bunch of crooks, and the likelihood that the CNE will respect an opposition win is slim.
The decision on election day is then two-fold: whether or not we should bother voting in these conditions, and who we should vote for (let’s assume a blank vote is possible).
Voting is costless. Given that there is a slim chance that the election will be clean – remember, this is the worst case scenario – it still makes sense to go and vote, just in case.
Now, whom should we vote for? On the one hand, we have our customary cadre of narco-military red-wearing crooks currently in power. On the other hand we have Bolichico-funded-narco-crooks who are not in power, who claim to be in the opposition, and who … ( big factor ) … against all odds, ensure our country becomes a democracy again.
Isn’t it obvious that you should vote for whomever *claims* to be in the opposition?
Not doing so practically ensures that things stay the way they are. In fact, staying home or voting blank ensures that things get even worse. Chavismo wins. Game, set, match.
The only glimmer of hope lies in electing people such as <Insert here the name of your favorite opposition-turncoat-chavista-vendido-Bolichico humping-Dom Perignon sipping-Assembly session skipping-punching bag> to ensure a transition to democracy.
I’m as dissatisfied with our opposition leaders as the next guy, but at least I know that if we elect a majority with these folks, EVEN with these folks … we will be laying the groundwork toward building a proper democracy in Venezuela. With the other guys? Zero chance.
So when voting time comes, simply go and vote for these losers. They’re all we’ve got.
Caracas Chronicles 
The Chavistas have already stated more than once that they will not relinquish power even if they lose the elections. Since the crooks get to count the votes, they will probably falsify the results and claim that the angry voters who will take to the streets are participating in a CIA-led coup. This will serve as a pretext for martial law slaughter and colectivos run rampant. There is no realistic way that Maduro is going to win an honest election at this point with socialist utopia in the mess that it is in. The eyes and ears of the world must be kept trained on Venezuela at this point if there is any hope of stopping another communist massacre and neighboring countries must make their opposition to such a horror clear. Communists all basically want anyone who opposes them dead or in jail, but it is harder to pull off when you’re not shielded deep in the Cambodian jungle away from prying eyes. The elements of the Venezuelan army who are tired of Cuban domination may see the post-election chaos as a ripe coup opportunity as well.
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Oh, was looking for a post to discuss this:
http://www.el-nacional.com/politica/Merida-comision-electoral-MUD_0_603539774.html
The local leadership on Mérida decided to hold primaries of their own to present a candidate outside of the MUD consensus and the PSUV. Which I predicted that would happen if the MUD insisted on terrible candidates “a dedo”. So there’s that.
This is not the electorate of 2013, that sat in their asses watching Globovision and allowed the MUD to take the decisions for them. Turns out that a year of having to make politics on their own, since nobody else was interested outside begging for votes on campaign, can change people.
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Just say this article…. http://www.businessinsider.com/venezuela-is-betraying-its-friends-to-survive-2015-4
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Saw this article…..
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However demobilized our side might be, their 3-digit-inflation-with-falling-GDP-and-a-president-everyone-hates side is more demobilized. Much more.
If there are elections – which I very much doubt – 30% of our voters will stay home, but so will 60% of theirs.
Expect an oppo landslide amid hideously low turnout.
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Come on Francisco! Tibisay would never announce an opposition landslide…. If there are elections, chavistas will use the same tactic they’ve been using: infinite campaign funds, a very large electoral registry, free Haier goodies, food bags and crazy voting rallies paying moto taxistas all around the time polls close. At 11 pm Tibisay will announce PSUV as winners with likely the same representation of today…100 to 65 or so…. maybe more. You know it. I know it. I can even tell you the %. Chavistas will say PSUV 53% of national vote.
Young people that read this: get out of Venezuela. Soon
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Chavismo *could* turn out to be the FIRST IN HISTORY government to win an election among plummeting approval ratings, an imploding economy, 3-digit-inflation and mass scarcity. And porcine creatures may be ejaculated and become airborne using my colon as a launch platform.
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Haha, lovely analogy.
But seriously, though, even though the odds are against us, especially with a Chavista-controlled CNE, at least we have more chances of winning than by NOT voting at all and staying at home doing shit and keeping with the current lifestyle we have that is only getting worse.
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Exactly! Another victory pulled by the “espiritu del comandante en el momento clave”…. I mean, we have to go to vote, despite all, including lousy candidates, but we all know what’s coming… Two months of ($$$$) giveaways, heavy campaigning ($$$) some breaking of the unidad ($$) some repression of the oppo voceros (AL, LO are just the beginning) and ooopps all back to 0. Remember this is an election with many clients (candidates) and movers (local psuv voting machine)… your colon will be launching things into outter space….hope i am mistaken and if that happens i will concede.
So I rephrase my advise to young people: Get out of the country. Soon. But make sure you vote.
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I think your body is unusual.
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I hope your sphincter muscles are up for the job.
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“Chavismo *could* turn out to be the FIRST IN HISTORY government to win an election among plummeting approval ratings…”
They already “won” in 2005, with 15%.
BUT, that time, there wasn’t 3-digit hyperinflation, mass scarcity nor the orchestrated genocide of the population…
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“Chavistas will say PSUV 53% of national vote…”
Actually, they’ll say “We got more congressmen, period.” and when asked how many votes, they’ll say “That doesn’t matter, machine kills votes.”
On the other hand, the voting strategy won’t do zilch unless it’s accompanied by an effective and real collection strategy, which I’m 100% sure it isn NOT “go to your house and listen salsa”, which was THE strategy following the massive abstention in 2005.
So, every base voter’ll do their job by going and voting, okay, several will support to the best of their power the witnesses where’s possible (Forget accomplishing ANYTHING in those centers where the armed colectivos, milicos or whatever chaburro death squad are pointing a gun threaten to kill everybody), but the so called “leaders” must (yes, THEY MUST, because it’s them the voters are gonna listen) lead the “cobro”.
Otherwise, this’ll be 2005 and 2013 all over again…
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This is a government orchestrated agenda for abstention. They are counting on 20-25% of hard votes which will go against about the same for the opposition. If they manage a very high abstention, they will manage the swing votes of the ni-ni. Then they will have a good shot at wining because even vote fraud has its limits and it is not achievable with a very significant majority against them.
The message is to vote and reduce abstention. That being said, the “punishment vote” is almost as bad as voting for the “other guys”. We have now 16 years of mediocrity beyond imagination thanks to the punishment vote.
The opposition needs to be extremely careful and vet everyone that wants to run under their flag. This is the time when the MUD will have to show that there are indeed better than the PSUV. That the people they are bringing forward are not more of the same, that they indeed have learned after 16 years of reversals. That they are true to those lessons of the past so we can build the Venezuela everyone wants.
Now, that is the vision; the reality is that politics, personal interests, long engrained culture of corruption and lack of the moral fiber are our real enemies. They will be times of focused and raw pragmatism which is our worst cultural strain. But like a virus, they point has never be to kill them all (which is impossible), the point is to control them and kill 99.9% like a Lysol commercial.
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“They will be times of focused and raw pragmatism which is our worst cultural strain…”
You mean the LACK of pragmatism is the worst cultural strain of the venezuelan people.
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“…Well, their turn has come. Let the world discover who they are, what they do and what happens when they refuse to function. This is the strike of the men of the mind, Miss Taggart. This is the mind on strike.”
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..and the likelihood that the CNE will respect an opposition win is slim.”
Jezuzzzz, between the CNE, Chavez’s Fraudmatic, the Voting Dead, the Chinese, Cubans with 3 cedulas.. Masburrismo will triumph with 55% approval.. how naive can some of you be?!
They’ll just say polls are bulshyt, controlled by the Imperio, and refer to the previous 10 Million signature “list” as proof of massive popularity. The “tough victory” will be announced by the Ministerio de la Suprema Felicidad!!
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Floyd,
Let me put this to you lightly: if you hope to convince people that there is NO WAY the CNE will allow an opposition victory, NO WAY AT ALL, then you are failing miserably. Give it up.
I give you that there are serious doubts about the CNE’s honesty. I concede that elections are not clean. But to claim that the CNE is going to simply cook up the numbers and flip a seemingly large victory for the opposition just like that is simply bonkers.
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Why? For fear of popular revolt?!
Care to elaborate? I already specified in 2 posts here how they may get away with murder: Used MASS FRAUD, with Chavez’s Smartmatic, The Dead, Cubans and Chinese vote, as usual, PLUS massive intimidation and scare tactics , telling our naive/uneducated people they can see who they vote for, and using the 10 Million vote list as a tool, both as Terror Tactics and to justify their bogus “support” .
They might decide to let THESE elections slip by, since it’s only Pariament, and there’s no separation of powers anyway, they would just crack-down more on the opposition.. Then pull the Major Fraud, again, on the Presidential “elections”, but I digress.
Methinks they are capable of stealing even these relatively meaningless “Parliament “elections” (As if Corruptzuela truly had a “Parliament”) just because they are extremely greedy, corrupt and stupid.
Just watch Chavez’s Smartmatic work its magic!
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Unless a machine effectively flip a vote, which THEY DON’T (and this has been proved beyond reasonable doubt), an escenario of mass fraud is not possible. Yes, true that in a very tight outcome, they can flip the tortilla with dead people voting, intimidation, and stuff. But there is a limit to the power of the machinary.
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Go back a few blogs, where we posted about 3 dozen links about Chavez’s wonder Fraudmatic machines..
Or ask the Euopeans, Germans etc, why they despise the system.
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I know I read that and there were a lot of speculations. But I have been in the process. On site, on the party side, checking the results for four elections… And I did not find a single discrepancy.
Yeah the system sucks. We can agree on that.
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“Unless a machine effectively flip a vote, which THEY DON’T (and this has been proved beyond reasonable doubt)…”
Uh, nope, the only way ton convince people that the machines are NOT tampering with popular will is to prove that the SAME code is being in those units the day of the voting, regardless of what the so-called audits conducted by pusv technicians might say (Also, everybody knows that the pusv has nigh-unlimited access to the source code at any time they choose)
The machines are too easy to alter and too easy to manipulate, they might even print something and send something else to the totalization centers, there’s no proof that they don’t do that.
So, to quote Bill Gates, “Computers are useful for everything, except for an election.”
“But to claim that the CNE is going to simply cook up the numbers and flip a seemingly large victory for the opposition just like that is simply bonkers.”
Nothing says they WON’T do that either, after all, they can enforce whatever they want, they have guns.
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“Chavismo *could* turn out to be the FIRST IN HISTORY government to win an election among plummeting approval ratings, an imploding economy, 3-digit-inflation and mass scarcity. ”
EASY. That’s why nuestro Comandante Chavez created Smartmatic, and Jesusito gives cedulas to dead Chinese.
JUST WATCH: la Rebolusion Bolibanana will turn 80% “disapproval into 55% delighted ciudadanos pro-Masburrismo.
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“JUST WATCH: la Rebolusion Bolibanana will turn 80% “disapproval into 55% delighted ciudadanos pro-Masburrismo.”
Even worse, they’ll turn 20-30% of the votes in 115 congressmen, all due to the magic of the gerrymandering fraud, where pusv votes are worth twenty times what “the pariahs” votes.
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I think voting in this conditions end up being a very personal and complicated decision. I think about the people who voted for Ismael García in the Libertador mayor election. Who did really believe in him? A lot of people voted because they thought “they didn’t have another alternative”. They do. They can abstain or vote blank. But then, what are the consequences of that? And in a lot of people’s mind (like when I casted a vote for Rosales… ugh) it is difficult. The MUD does not help their case by not having primaries or by putting old gizzards that everyone hate as cadidates. Or pleasing certain candidates that they end up doing nothink like it happened with Enrique Mendoza on the last AN election. I think Luis Carlos put it very concrete in his reply to this question: http://ask.fm/periodismodepaz/answer/125933116666 …. Nadie dijo que sería fácil.
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” I think about the people who voted for Ismael García in the Libertador mayor election. Who did really believe in him? ”
Well, there’s a lot of people always talking about how “chavistas should be hug and forgiven for their sins in favor of rebuilding a blah, blah, blah…”, so, hey, they have their right to step off chaburrismo and say “I regret doing that and I’ll go against them now, you can trust me”, so people gave them the chance.
The problem comes when they go and “return” to chaburrismo AFTER they were chosen by opposition voters.
“A lot of people voted because they thought “they didn’t have another alternative”. They do. They can abstain or vote blank.”
And that’s why people in Táchira have a governor who openly despises and hates everything “gocho”, whose bodyguards are a bunch of rapists (for a rape was one of the reasons #LaSalida exploded last year), in Carabobo there’s a proven thief that eagerly sends death squads to slaughter the people, and in Zulia they have the triple-traitor chicken-toad mutation cyst.
Yyyeeeeepp, “abstain and voting blank” accomplished A LOT in those cases, dude.
PS: Before someone asks “but then they would’ve been worse”, nope, they wouldn’t have to deal with yet another bastard sending another corps of bastards after the people AT LEAST.
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Totally missed the point, dude. Of course it doesn’t accomplish much to vote blank, but you cannot judge people for not voting for someone they do not like just for the sake of voting against something. I voted for Rosales who is someone I do not trust at all. I did it because I deem it necessary. Of course I am not so arrogant to think that everyone should have the same rationale. That’s why we need good candidates that the people like and trust, and the best way, given our voting system, then primaries are a necessity. The MUD fails to understand that. You cannot make the voters accountable for no voting for horrible candidates.
On your reply above that I cannot reply anymore:
“The machines are too easy to alter and too easy to manipulate, they might even print something and send something else to the totalization centers, there’s no proof that they don’t do that.”
Then you don’t understand the system. The final tally printed by the machine is the one sent to the CNE, you can verify its authenticity by opening the boxes and counting the paper ballots. On the other hand, you can verify the results of the totalization with the web and you can go as deep as a specific “mesa” and check. The opposition parties have a very very very big portion of those final tallies, except in rural very remote areas where defenitely Chavismo can do whatever they want there but… are they statistical significant to change an election? I don’t think so. I have talked with opossition witnesses in the heart of Petare. Yes they have intimidation, GNB making things difficult, people knocking the door of the centre at 17:59, but they still get the tally, they still count the paper in the boxes, they have told me the content of the tally by phone hidden in the bathroom of the school they worked. And ballot box = machine final tally = CNE website = Tibisay announcment. We SERIOUSLY need to focus in the other side of the unfairness of the process than on the stupid machines.
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“…you can verify its authenticity by opening the boxes and counting the paper ballots.”
Except when chavistas say “no box opening”, and people have to deal with that, otherwise, everybody knows the consequences.
“The opposition parties have a very very very big portion of those final tallies, except in rural very remote areas where defenitely Chavismo can do whatever they want there but… are they statistical significant to change an election?”
In parlamentary elections, yes, they are that significant, with the aid of the gerrymandering fraud method, where those “very remote rural areas” votes are worth much more than votes from people of opposition-witnessed areas.
Also, those unsupervised areas are where the muticedulados, the dead, the non-existant and the farc go to cast as many votes as they want, also, inside prisons, no one can prove the results are true inside those either (And I understand that inmates go and vote too, guess who oversees those tables)
In those impossible to oversee areas are where the fraud hits the hardest, because, come on, chaburros are morons, but they aren’t that stupid to put the machines with the botched sowftware in the middle of the “opposition controlled areas”.
“And ballot box = machine final tally = CNE website = Tibisay announcment”
The referendum for the constitution change in 2007 results were never fully disclosed to the public like it happened with other elections, so, they can put misia lucena to say whatever they want, and again, claim that “machine kills votes, or else…”.
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We need to vote regardless Smartmatic and CNE. Abstention will only help the government and make the fraud a lot easier. We ought not to listen the government agenda for abstention, read between the lines!!
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Abstention’s chances of working are slim because the so-called leaders won’t do anything to “cobrar” after the fraud’s been made.
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My very personal questions on this matter is are we really prepared to govern this country? A few days ago I read that we need at least 1.000 highly prepared men and women (distributed between AN, TSJ, Executive Power and Regional Governments) to lead the country towards a stable system. I know that the chavismo-madurismo doesn’t have it either but they have at least a solid ground on which they stand – PDVSA, FANB and the poderes constituidos-. To solve any crisis or at least put some “paños calientes” will result highly imposible in the short tearm for a possible opposition-ruled government, specially without those 1.000 people. I know it doesn’t have much to do with the article but is a question I can’t get out of my mind.
Best Regards.
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Well, it has to start SOMEWHERE, right?
Winning the Assembly back is the key. Many key appointments and decisions go through it.
Let’s try to start with 102 prepared people and go from there
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Of course! This is not an excuse for not to vote. But for me its incredible that in more than 15 years aiming to rule the country and bring it back to a solid democracy, we weren’t able to prepare at least a 1.000 people to do so.
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We DO have people that can guide the country back to “normalcy”.
Don’t think that all the people we will need are gone from Venezuela.
Many have left, and will return to build up what 16 years of stupidity have ruined.
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Seriously doubt it. Specially when it comes to do with places like Delta Amacuro, Trujillo or Cojedes. And it doesn’t have to do with doing “política de calle” in those places. My concern is if they can create suited-and-effective-public-policies for those places.
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You might be surprised of how many people that are going outside are actually planning to return some time in the future.
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Ridiculous! Do you really think that the Opposition can’t find 1,000 people that are better qualified than the ones who are there now? Is this an argument for throwing in the towel and accepting the status quo?
Will putting the country back on the right track be easy? Of course not. But, giving up guarantees failure.
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Not the best source (Donald Rumsfeld), but a pretty sage quote, “You go to war with the army you have — not the one you want or wish you had.”
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There are many versions of the same idea, the most common expression is you play with the cards you re dealt and you play the best that you can , the phrase apparently was first pronounced by C.S Lewis .
Rumsfeld had a knack for repeating other peoples quotes and then having them attributed to him .
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Agree that the C.S. Louis quote expresses a version of the same idea. However, in the case in point, I think Rumsfeld’s quote hits the mark closer. Also, I doubt that Rumsfeld was thinking about posterity when he uttered that. He was responding to an awkward question about the army being ill-equipped from a U.S. soldier serving in Iraq at the time.
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I like this one better: “Si del cielo te caen limones aprende a hacer limonada” Willie Colon
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For me it’s pretty simple. Staying home or voting blank guarantees that nothing will change. Voting means something MIGHT change. I’ll take the maybe…
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You know, between going to New Orleans to vote for a bunch of Parliamentary mules elected by Chavez’s Fraudmatic and staying in Miami, what would you do?
After further thought, methinks the upcoming “Legislative” elections are beyond laughable and pathetic for 2 reasons:
1. The Chavismo Regime will continue to do whatever they want, even if the opposition is allowed to win. They will just tighten up the oppression screws a bit more.
2. I say “allowed to win” because, either way, the Dictators will manipulate Fraudmatic and multiple other Cheating Tools at their disposal to either allow a small “defeat” or catapult a massive fraud with a “small victory” say by 53%.
I’m starting to think that they would be beyond retarded to go for the slight “win”. Too obvious now, even for our tamed, uneducated pueblo and the international opinion that doesn’t really care.
They’ll probably save the Massive Fraud for when it matters, the Presidential election. There’s no separation of powers and no real “Parliament” , or Laws or Justice in Vzla, anyway.
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I think if they had the ability to flip results like that Chavez would not have lost la reforma and Maduro would have “won” by more than 2%. It’s just hard to swallow that while Chavez was alive chavismo was the majority. It bothers me too. I wish it was true that they stole the referendum, the presidentials in 2006 and 2012 etc. That would be easy and convenient to believe instead of the hard to swallow truth. They loved Chavez. The majority of them. Not as many when he died as during his peak in 2006 but still a majority however Chavez is dead and this is a new reality. They don’t love Maduro and we have a real chance at winning the elections if they are held
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“I read that we need at least 1.000 highly prepared men and women (distributed between AN, TSJ, Executive Power and Regional Governments) to lead the country towards a stable system.”
Utter Rubish, as Churchill would say..
All you need is a couple dozen decent, Honest people with half a brain.
That’s it.
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“…people with half a brain.”
That means, ZERO VIVOS.
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People, you have two alternatives vote with the hope that “something” will change, and vote or vote blank with the certainty that “nothing” will change.
Yes, we can argue until the cows come home on whether or note the vote will be lost, flipped, exchanged, paid for, messed with, and so on. The true of the matter is that it is the first steps toward regime change. Yes, if the miracle happens that the opposition wins and a opposition congress is formed, the Maduro’s boys will find the way to bypass the congress, do a Furimoyazo and whatnots but it is the message what it is important.
The message it is quite simple yet powerful: we are a legal majority, not a poll and not a guess. International community will have to recognize the congress and Maduro would not have all the degrees of freedom he enjoys right now. Some of the military and other controllers of the legal and illegal government sponsored violence may desist or at least think twice as the possibility of change may become more tangible.
I believe Maduro will be forced at the SOTA to use international observers. That will be the international checking on Maduros’ democratic credentials (or what is left of it). He knows he most have a clean election in order to keep the regime legitimized or face isolation. He will have a very tough 2016 and he is not wiling to burn what is left of LATAM support.
So, vote and vote right! and stop thinking like you are voting in a democratic country which it is not…
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I think the smartest move is to clean our leader’s names. Present them much better than they really are. We only just need a sign of hope, something that tell us that things will change, that’s how Chavez won. So please, do not understimate opposition’s candidates…it does more harm than good.
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