21 thoughts on “Three Good Reasons Why Capriles’s Moment is Past

  1. Lo usual es que las encuestadoras hagan un balance entre el “agrado” y el “desagrado” que producen los líderes políticos. En esta, extrañamente, sólo se habla de agrado. Encuestas anteriores han mostrado que MCM y LL tienen mayores niveles de desagrado que HCR, por lo que el balance de éste es mejor. Qué raro que esta vez no lo hayan mostrado.

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  2. Hardly. The stock of a politician can’t be measured by just a poll. There is still a lot more story to unfold in this saga. People’s opinion is very fickle, todays darling will be forgotten tomorrow. That doesn’t determine the future of a true politician. LL was doing a very good work with his VP party but launching #LaSalida unilaterally while breaking the unity of the opposition was a bad blunder. He may not pay politically for it because people prefer the maverick with the quick solution to the strategist with the slow plan. So now he is popular and a martyr, all good political assets but at what price for the opposition? Lets hope he can recognize the value of unity and work more in that direction.

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  3. If I´m not mistaken, Consultores21 is Capriles´s pollster, unless he switched in the past few months. This is interesting given that the MUD and other “radical” opposition sectors will be meeting tomorrow behind closed doors to negotiate, and I think some might be able to flex more muscles than others if this poll is true…
    A couple of other things jump out from this poll, like the fact that most people think Maduro lies often, that the student movement is second only to Citizens in terms of perception as a force for good (and that Maduro is dead last among that list, close behind the CNE and the National Assembly), and finally, that despite all these trust issues, people still believe in elections….

    Cal, I missed the “desagrado” part too…

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    • This is interesting given that the MUD and other “radical” opposition sectors will be meeting tomorrow behind closed doors to negotiate

      timing is everything. so, too, is a pollster that can manipulate results, just so.

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    • I think we all know there is only one serious pollster in Vzla. You might not like him or his Sunday’s column at El Universal, but he is the only one that has a decent track record. Nevertheless, feel free to hold on your “clavo ardiendo” if that makes you feel better. Are we really discusing the accuracy of a poll that puts MCM at 45%? Are we so naive?

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  4. If we’re getting technical, both Falcón and MCM are within the margin of error of Capriles’ score. Only LL beats him and well, he’s in kind of an awkward position to do much.

    So yes, Capriles’ moment as superstar is over, but he is still one of the important people within la MUD. And maybe that’s a good thing; for presidential/state elections a superstar is good, but right now having a collective leadership might be the way forward, especially with legislatives next year. If there’s the slightest hint of any sort of split or fracture within chavismo, la MUD must do everything to stay together and take advantage from any vote splitting that could happen on the other side.

    Heck, I’m tempted to start promoting “El Verdadero Chavismo” as a movement dissident from “Maduro’s PSUV” and his treason of El Gigante’s true message.

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    • Agree with the optics, EC.

      The way I see it, MUD needs:
      (a) an institutionalized way to tell Capriles that his star has tarnished, that it’s time to consider other forms of leadership;
      (b) to build bridges to more radical factions of the oppo (VP, in particular) in order to remain politically relevant;
      (c) to gloss over its torpeza of a few weeks ago, when LL was written off as a man who caused his own demise.

      This poll accomplishes those objectives.

      As for LL being the superstar. Well, currently that has no political viability. Ditto MCM. Henry Falcón needs more political currency, but when teamed with Capriles has the best chance of providing the leadership that all the oppo needs. See? Consultores 21 said so.

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  5. It has to be sobering to some parties, like UNT, Copei or AD their leaders are outside that poll.

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  6. Capriles needs to step up and show a path forward — if he can’t do that, then yeah, his moment has passed.

    But not because of this one-moment-in-time poll that shows it makes you (temporarily) more popular to be in jail than out.

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  7. The oppo popularity figures evidently overlap so that they might like LL first and Capriles second and so on so that even if preferences vary the overlap element is strong signalling that the unity is still there behind the surface divisions in the preference ranking .

    Dont know that polls which really represent a snapshot in time can be read that decisevely when things can change easily from one moment to the next depending on a persons speech or appearance in the news or other factors.

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  8. In Venezuelan history never a candidate that has been stolen (or claimed to have been stolen) an election has had a chance or become president again; Jóvito Villalba and Andres Velasquez

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