A few days ago I wrote about how nobody knows what the MUD is up to these days. To make matters even more confusing, today we hear that Roberto Enríquez, president of COPEI, one of the parties in the MUD, is asking Diosdado Cabello to join them in a transition government.
His elevator speech? “Radical” chavistas should join forces with the MUD and oppose the government … because “socialism” has failed.
Yes, makes total sense.
Look, all power to Mr. Enríquez for wanting to go on Venevisión and promote this idea. Every politician needs their fifteen minutes in the sun once in a while. And the idea of trying to drive a wedge between Diosdado and Maduro is not bad per se. But asking radical chavismo to accept the failure of socialism is a Hail-Mary pass if I’ve ever seen one.
As the opposition continues trying to find the right strategies, individuals inside the coalition will do anything to get attention. The crazier their ideas, the more likely they will end up in Venevisión.
This points to a serious problem inside the opposition. It was bad enough when we were insulting each other, but now … we’re just insulting the public’s intelligence. Something has to be done.
PS.- I’m traveling to Colorado this weekend, so posting will be light the next few days. Enjoy!
Caracas Chronicles 
Diosdado Cabello???
I would rather get into bed with a rattlesnake.
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Embarrassing to show this level of desperation
Diosdado must me laughing seeing this guy put the last nail in Copei’s coffin
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Colorado eh?
Carefully read the names of the shops you go to, don’t wander into a dispensary by mistake!
http://www.coloradopotguide.com/where-to-buy-marijuana/
:-)
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Oh Roberto, you don’t know me at all! #SquareAndProud
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Por lo menos unas birras nos vamos a echar!
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Let me know i fyou come to Vail!
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have a good trip, errr like, far out, dude
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There is no way to get rid of Diosdado Cabello, who is the one that fuels at least 80% of the corruption in Venezuela. He owns too much,he knows too much and he’s packing heat.
Venezuela is his private property now.
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A friend of mine told me yesterday that COPEI had: “The most accurate vision of the country right now”, so I can’t imagine he meant this.
PS: Enjoy Colorado. We all know you are going to enjoy the stuff.
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And it’s because of guys like that idiot that chavistas are rolling in the floor laughing their asses off while maburro and diablodiao are destroying Venezuela.
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In some way it makes sense. True believers/radicals are the ones most likely to be frustrated enough to abandon the government if they realize they can’t reform it from within, they also might be delusional enough to think they can start a new “pure” Chavista movement and win an election later on based on this platform.
At this point however I think the true believers won’t be the ones who bring the government down. Chavezism will only collapse when everyone simultaneously realizes that no one believes it anymore, as happened in the Soviet Union. There are still a lot of true believers who need to be ground down by government corruption and crime. Setty is also right that grass roots education can hasten this process.
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The Soviet Union collapsed when it became clear the government would no longer repress dissidents or protesters with tanks. Will that happen here? As long as there is enough oil rents to go to the armed forces and their dependents, and a ruthless leadership remains in place, you never know.
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The Soviet Union collapsed because of that, because of the US-led tech revolution, because of its expenses in Afghanistan and last but not least, because of oil prices, I would say.
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They attempted to repress protesters with tanks, but failed because those sent to do the repression didn’t believe or trust those giving them orders. The failed coup attempt of 1991 is ample evidence of this. Of course both you and Kepler are correct. My point was only that most of the population no longer believing in Chavez fairy tails one of many needed elements for the regime to collapse.
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“Crisis de valores” or “moral values crisis” says this typical Venezuelan mediocre politician.. This type of demagogue turns my stomach.. You can tell he’s just another “desenchufado” who wants a piece of the pie. You can see “corrupto” all over his forehead.
Remember the Copeyanos throughout Venezuela’s history? A bunch of Inept Thieves, most of them.. Luis Herrera and all of those clowns, poor Caldera, probably one of the very few politicians who didn’t steal for himself, but all of his Children took a HUGE bite.. ironically,, and then the Adecos.. same thing, and now the MUD..
They’ll go back to the same: Inept, Corrupt Thieves. Just not as bad as the Chavistas..
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“… poor Caldera…”
Given that he released the intergalactic bastard and his followers from jail, fuck him.
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He was also the colonoscopic cyst’s godfather.
Nothing like nepotism-driven impunity to lay the bases for a dictatorship.
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“not as bad as the chavistas….” factually a wrong statement.
The Chavistas are the best at what they do! world class, best in kind, etc.
….Stealing in the Trillion dollar range, with slim possibilities of ever getting caught, or punished!!!
that is what I call GOOOOOOD.
Just sayin’
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And the people cheer him on
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The guy is definitely desperate. He was plump, way too obvious. As Juan says, nothing against trying to divide the foes but this act is just clumsy.
We need to reach the practical lefties who are honest, plus the very young – the ones who are right now in secondary school – think 15-18-year olds. We don’t need to target the big fish – in that I disagree with Francisco Toro.
Now, one of the things this Copeyano’s action is particularly stupid is because it does not make sense at all
from the point of view of the existing gangs. There are the following, in my opinion:
1) the Maduro gang, connected to the Cuban gangsters
2) the military, Cabello-led gang, much less prone to ideology
3) the old commies, mostly pseudo-intelletuals and old guerrilleros – Navarro, Soto
together with some groups of young commies – these guys really detest 2) and, increasingly, 3). By going after 2) this Copeyano is making 3) mad and – this is what matters – alienating a lot of younger followers who, once the arepa becomes scarcer, could join our forces.
I was recently having a twitter “chat” with a Chavista about the minister of interior’s brother and his 500 hectare hacienda. Another Chavista, very active, told me: cuál es el problema? After a while that Chavista says her father and family owns a 500+ hectare hacienda as well.
She didn’t realise how paradoxical that was. And another Chavista insulted me telling me I was probably living in a “rancho” and felt resentment etc.
We have gone full cycle.
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“¿Cuál es el problema?” Que eres un hipócrita de mierda.
That’s what I would have said to that bastard, seriously, what infuriates me the most from “radical” chavistas who are all about saying “a los escuacas deberían a todos meterles un palo por ese culo y luego matarlos a tiros porque le robaron a los pobres” is the sheer hipocrisy by which they drive their pathetic lives.
“Yeah, if you have a farm, you’re a land-hogger, but if I HAVE a farm, I am a caretaker of the land, what I do is good and what you do is bad, just because I say so.”
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“Now, one of the things this Copeyano’s action is particularly stupid is because it does not make sense at all
from the point of view of the existing gangs. There are the following, in my opinion:
1) the Maduro gang, connected to the Cuban gangsters
2) the military, Cabello-led gang, much less prone to ideology
3) the old commies, mostly pseudo-intelletuals and old guerrilleros – Navarro, Soto
together with some groups of young commies – these guys really detest 2) and, increasingly, 3). By going after 2) this Copeyano is making 3) mad and – this is what matters – alienating a lot of younger followers who, once the arepa becomes scarcer, could join our forces.”
Can you rephrase that last part? Not sure I am following who is detesting who?
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If an opposition politician wants to gain votes from some meaningful group of Chavista, he might better attack Diosdado and talk about “those who are honest”…perhaps even “those who are real socialists”. It is silly to try to woo Cabello…that guy is powerful with the military.
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Gotcha. Thanks
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Awesome, COPEI’s Roberto Henriquez.
While you’re at it, you should also invite Rafael Ramirez, the bolicharchs and the bolichicos… I can’t think of a more appropriate group to transition Venezuela away from this clusterfuck.
(end of sarcasm).
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Henriquez should explain how he intends to resolve a “moral value crisis” by joining forces with a corrupt psychopath like Diosdado Cabello.
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Ok. This post doesn’t make all the sense it should: everyone here knows that Diosdado does not represent the ‘radical’ wing of Chavismo. Also, the COPEI dolt has given the game away: an ‘unity government’ (nowhere do I see in the article the word “transition”) with Diosdado is pretty much what the unhinged and moneyed wing(s?) of the opposition is angling for.
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If Diosdado is the one who controls the UBCH and other armed groups and gives them their orders, then, in a sense, he does represent the radical wing.
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Radical and Armed are not synonyms.
Put Giordani and Diosdado next to each other. Would you consider that Giordani is the moderate one?
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They are each radical in their own way. Giordani is radical for trying to implement a failed economic model that even many of the government’s own supporters didn’t believe in. Cabello is radical in a Stalin/Saddam Hussein sort of way; he believes it’s acceptable to jail or kill anyone who stands in his way.
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Diosdado is a criminal not a radical
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As noted, as long as the chavernment has oil money to pay the men with guns, it can hold power forever – or until there is a genuine broad popuiar rebellion, capable of defeating the chavernment in a civil war. (See Libya for an example.)
But (as Libya indicates) that path would be extremely bloody and destructive.
Let’s assume that (as noted) Cabello’s faction has the allegiance of the armed forces and “bolivarian militias”. But the economic other failings of the chavernment approach the point where that popular rebeliion will happen – and the Cabello faction could be destroyed.
Suppose instead they make a deal. There is a military coup against Maduro. Oppo figures assume power in coalition with Cabello, who denounces Maduro, providing political cover on the left. Most of the chavistas, boligarchs, and colectivos get purged as scapegoats. Cabello and his military cronies keep their positions and wealth. This is a high price to pay – but it could avert the devastation of civil war, and perhaps end the chavernment sooner.
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The only way out? La Constituyente.
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The mind construction of there been an UNITARY way to solve everything, like a silver bullet of kinds is very deceptive. There are many factors that support functioning thriving societies. Not one.
Politically speaking, our society is so corrupted that we have leadership such as this one, and even worse, follower-ship (is this a word?) equally as spoiled.
La constituyente, o la renuncia, o el gobierno de unidad, o el golpe de estado y junta de gobierno posterior , o cualquier otra, all have something in common: they would need to be manned (Woman-ed) by the politicos and leaders we have. And with the citizens and pueblo there is, hence my small hope for a happy ending in the near term.
As long as oil revenues paguen la pea y el raton, of irresponsible governments and citizens/ pueblos, there will be no lessons learned, and no change of behaviour and values. The incentives created and sustained by the “excremento del diablo” reinforce the status quo, and is the most effective lever to manage if there is any real intent of changing the dynamic. El petroestado rico is the most pervasive institution affecting the national interest.
The only REAL solutions are
1) through education, and education is not a politically positive return strategy for any incumbent (*) , or challenger in normal democratic terms. If you are thinking winning the next election investing in education is a failed strategy. On the other hand if you are thinking one or two generations ahead, yes.
2) Isolate the Oil rent from the State budget throug a functioning savings and development fund (norway) and raise taxes and right size the estate to what is sustainable. People paying taxes are the best stakeholders to have to control government excess and wastage.
(*) On a system as ours, currently aiming ONLY to stay in power forever, a la cubana, education DOES have a Reddit. If they manage to stay long enough, purge dissent by forced emigration, neutralize the ones remaining by inflation, devaluation, destruction of the economy and political control, AND benefit form demographic purge with older groups passing,and effectively indoctrinating younger ones, well, I did say it above, a la cubana, eventually there will be no one to challenge the nomekatur.
Clowns like this copei leader , does not make it very hard for them, IMO. Or most of the existing opposition who IMO do not want to change the game, only want to wait their chance to become themselves the players.
Pobre venezuela querida.
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The problem isn’t so much the current Constitution as the fact that Chavismo’s adherence to the Constitution is on an ad hoc basis. There is no rule of law in Venezuela. “El Estado, soy yo.” That is the problem.
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The way I see it, the Chavistas in power have given up on finding a solution to stay in power. They are accepting that the economy will collapse and that they will not be able to revive it. They are now squabbling and fighting over the last scraps before abandoning Venezuela to the dogs. Whoever in the Opposition that discusses conciliation with Chavismo will only succeed in placing their fingerprints all over the crime scene.
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When people talk about education they either think it’s for two generations or for now, somehow.
No. Education can be carried out at different levels.
My plead is for a middle term counter-propaganda strategy whereby all groups agree on a set of messages and short economic-social information packages: about what rule of law, division of powers and real accountability is, about how Chavismo is destroying the country and letting Venezuela lag behind the rest of Latin America. The opposition needs to build information groups to keep discussions everywhere in Venezuela about what is going on outside Venezuela. They should aimed at 2, 3 years from now. Depending on how the economy deteriorate, it might take less than 2 years but still, we should not expect a change before 2 years, nor should we do a Capriles. We should focus on building up the momentum, distributing more and more information but by no means expect to get a salida this year or even next. Let’s the pressure go up and up. Let’s do everything from now on for the 2015 elections but let’s remember that will only be a battle. If we did so, Chavismo would implode around 2016-2017.
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We should remember that the radical chavistas DONT think the model failed , they think the IMPLEMENTATION of the model failed , either because it wasnt RADICAL enough or beause it was highjacked by corrupt cliques of unauthentic chavistas. .
There might be some ( not the most radical) who think that it failed because the regime didnt put enought attention on the practical aspects of managing and planning and instead concentrated too much on showcasing the most ideologically potent messages . These are the ones that might perhaps find Oppo arguments as worthy of note .
Of course no one really believes in the economic war crap !! thats for sure !!
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OT,
Does any US American or someone else know what these guns are? What type?
http://el-carabobeno.com/portada/articulo/85619/polica-de-valencia-desmantel-banda-delictiva-los-trigaleos
Muchas gracias.
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Geez Kepler, the article itself states they are a .38 revolver ( the silver one) and a 9 mm pistol ( looks like a Glock 17).
Not sure I understand why you ask……..
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Thanks. I wanted to be sure. I had never heard of that Arminius (as a gun).
Now I found this: http://www.imfdb.org/wiki/Arminius_HW_Revolver_Series
I am trying to figure out where all those guns in Venezuela come from.
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The Caracal is a UAE special that’s only been around 10 years or so. It is used pretty widely in the ME and less so in a couple of countries in Europe, including your Germany. Essentially, it is a knockoff/cheaper competitor of the Glock.
I haven’t heard rave reviews about the gun maker, aside from it being subject to a recall. The model in question looks like a “C” or compact version.
I’d be interested in knowing how a gun from the ME made its way to Venezuela.
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Remember those direct flights from Tehran to Caracas a few years ago, where the passengers and the cargo were not required to pass through customs?
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I wouldn’t focus so much on that. I am collecting all kinds of news on weapons found. So far the German and US American ones prevail…for bigger fish the Russian AK.
The problem is much bigger, I think.
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Cavim, folks, cavim.
http://www.elchiguirebipolar.net/03-05-2012/balas-de-cavim-inician-migracion-a-casa-de-malandro/
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Not so OT:
Ramos Allup interview:
– He objects non-party actors (could be understood as NGO’s, trade unions, business associations, etc) joining MUD as a repeat of Coordinadora Democrática. (“[…]A lo que sí me niego redondamente es a que convirtamos a la MUD en un bis de la Coordinadora Democrática, porque ya sabemos lo que pasó con ella. La participación de sectores extrapolíticos está muy bien en sus áreas específicas, pero no en el comando de conducción política.[…]”)
– He recognizes #LaSalida proposals as compliant with the constitution. (“[…]Pedirle la renuncia a Maduro, promover una constituyente, prepararse para las parlamentarias, pensar en el referéndum revocatorio y en las presidenciales de 2019, son todas propuestas constitucionales.[…]”)
– He doesn’t like primaries, he prefers proportionality (keeps big parties, big, and small parties, small) and consensus (horse trading). (“[…]Algunos, no sé si como estrategia política, están anunciando primarias para todo, lo sensato es que repitamos lo que nos dio resultado: consensos y proporcionalidad, las primarias fueron la excepción.[…]”). He recognizes a reference of relative party support would have to be ad-hoc (“Hay que buscar un método porque no hay referentes confiables, podríamos combinarlos para ver el peso de cada uno.”)
– He is wary of opposition or non-chavista economists supporting economic reforms (a.k.a common sense) (“[…]Algunas medidas de ese eventual paquete las están recomendando economistas que son de oposición o no están identificados con el Gobierno. Ojalá no metamos la pata otra vez con esas coincidencias técnicas.[…]”)
http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/140721/tenemos-que-examinar-el-escenario-del-estallido-social
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