THIS is why chavismo can’t work without Chávez

Allegory for the path the nation is on…

Ever since July 2011, when Chávez first announced his cancer diagnosis, it was clear to me that the revolution’s formal institutionality was so shallowly grounded and devoid of any source of authority independent from his, that chavismo’s dispute settlement system just wouldn’t work at all in his absence.

And this, this is why destroying the nation’s democratic institutionality in favor of a single guy’s say-so was so mindlessly destructive, not just from the perspective of the nation as a whole but even from the narrow perspective of the chavista movement. Single guys come and go. Systems that depend entirely on single guys are never stable.

And Caracas Chronicles readers have known it since July 2011!

Chávez’s fills a unique role in the chavista state’s dispute settlement system. When Elías Jaua and Rafael Ramírez come to loggerheads over some matter of policy – or, more likely, over who gets to control a given slice of petrostate cake – they don’t go to court. They go to Miraflores.

For the foreseeable future, they won’t be able to.

How stable an arrangement do you think that is?

We’ll soon find out…

26 thoughts on “THIS is why chavismo can’t work without Chávez

  1. The only reason things kind of worked during Chavez was the tremendous level of $$$$$ coming in. It kept the kleptocracy going, the military fat, and there was even a little left to throw “the people” a bone.


    • I think it was quite obvious from the beginning that this wouldn’t hold together after his death. He knew he had to keep them on a relatively short leash, because they’d eat each other alive otherwise. That’s what is happening now.

      The downside is that, 14 years ago, most of them were little harmless cubs. He fed them well and now they’re grown, free, rabid and with fangs protruding. Brace yourselves.


  2. That looks like the Indiana Jones bridge. Do you think diosdado would pull “an Indy” on the government? Tie himself to the bridge and then cut it and see if he can survive, while throwing the pro-cuban communists to the crocodiles…


      • I don’t know, it seems obvious to me from the recording that the bando Silva has been cooperating with the G2 for a while with no input from Cabello. If he has any contact with the Cuban high command, it’s probably in the capacity of negotiating adversaries.


  3. Another casualty: the relaxed phone conversation between senior-ranking Chavistas. What would YOU be willing to say on the phone these days?


    • What’s interesting is that it doesn’t seem like this was a phone call at all. They were sitting there together and Mario had his recorder on – he even mentions making copies and burning them onto CDs towards the end of the talk!


        • And now that I think about it, not even on the phone. Like, in real life. Who can be trusted? Who is working for whom? Who is taping whom? Who is leaking what? Who is preparing what dossier? That’s what happens when the short-term doesn’t feel stable.


      • “Si te fijas el informe que sometí hace X tiempo, yo menciono que hay que cersenar los puntos de financiamiento de Cabello.” Right at the beginning. I think that says it all, Silva is a G2 stooge and he was calmly debriefing his handler after some kind of approach.


  4. Has anybody stopped to wonder just HOW this recording ends up in Ismael Garcia’s hands?

    I mean, think about it for a second.

    Whether this was some form of Skype or “via Internet” chat, or a phone call or an in person meeting, don’t you think something like this that gets recorded would be guarded pretty close?

    Two people could have leaked this, Mario Silva or the supposed G2 man, Palacios.

    Given the reputation the G2 has, it’s hard to believe Palacios just happened to drop this in Ismael Garcia’s mailbox or that whatever courier Mario Silva uses left it on the seat af the taxi he took to the airport (if that happened, chalk another one up for membership in the dead man walking team).

    The question really is why.

    This stinks so bad it’s not funny.

    It seems to be almost too good to be true and one hell of a red herring to distract people from the lack of food and TP, etc.

    It’s very possible that Disodado and Maduro really are on opposite sides and all, but this is one heck of a way for Maduro to kill two birds with one stone.

    Roll Diosdado under the bus & distract the people.

    Mario takes one for the team and re-surfaces in a couple months as if nothing happened.

    Esos son todos caimanes del mismo caño…………

    I say, move on and keep punching……………


    • I wouldn’t be surprised if this was some sort of machination from the part of the cubans to distract people from the severe shortages of food and other staples that affect the country right now, however, people seem to be letting a very important factor out of the equation and that is some good ol’ chavismo incompetence, remember, these are the guys that fucked up the country so much that now, somehow, we are importing gas from the people we are told 24/7 want to come into our country and eat our arepas, so to speak.

      Maybe the disk was simply stolen when it was going through the cuban chain of command, I’m not trying to paint some kind of James Bondesque plot here, it could have been as mundane as Mario or some other Cuban letting the disk on a table and an underling taking it knowing the reward for something like this would be enormous.


      • Not only the disk. Someone could have also lifted the original file from Silva’s computer it could have been uploaded to a flashdrive or a website or transferred to another computer. It could have been someone with direct access to the computer or someone connecting remotely via the web or even using a wifi connection.


  5. Sometimes, the simple explanation is the better, I think is important to guess who made the leak but there is no way to know, a spyware in his PC, a braking into his House, a member of the staff.

    I think this was leak to hurt Diosdao and they estimate that the damage tu Nicolás was acceptable compare to the risk the first was becoming


    • But Diosado didn’t get hurt… I don’t know what Chavistas think about Diosdado tho, do you think the regular Chavista prefer Toripollo and Cilia over Diosdado? I mean, everybody knows they are not capable enough, not charming enough, no nothing enough for the position. Everybody knows why they got were they are right now, and it’s not because of their mesmerizing charm, experience and education.


    • no impolta.

      Aparte, I think MS knew his La Hojilla was being cut (wasn’t there a rumour about that a week or so ago?). P.O.’d over the prospect of having nothing else to define him (outside his .. well, I won’t go there), he let it rip.


  6. So, the government is importing 50 million rolls of toilet paper to take care of the problem. Is that less than two toilet rolls per person? Is this how the government fixes problems?


    • Let me clarify. The Chaverment only said they were importing 50 million rolls of toilet paper. Whether it happens or not is to be seen. I am sure that high-level Chavistas will consume a minimum of 10 million rolls themselves given the massive amounts of crap they produce.


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