The flip side of Quico’s post

Over at Foreign Policy’s Transitions blog, I lay out the reasons why Capriles has a case. My main point:

One has to wonder: How could chavistas get away with this? The explanation, according to Capriles, lies in the fingerprint scanning machines. According to him, these machines allow anyone to vote, regardless of whether the fingerprint matches the records. He notes that the software governing the machines was not audited prior to the election — because the CNE refused to allow such an audit.

When you combine questionable high-tech voting machinery with a government that loosely hands out ID cards, buses people to voting centers using government vehicles, intimidates public workers into supporting the government, and uses an electoral registry that includes tens of thousands of dead voters, it’s not too difficult to see how the vote could easily be inflated in favor of the ruling incumbent.

All Capriles wants is a full audit: of machines, ballot boxes, voting notebooks, fingerprint machines, and that the underlying codes for all the procedures be studied and tallied against one another. In centers where there is a serious mismatch, the votes should be voided and, perhaps, repeated.

110 thoughts on “The flip side of Quico’s post

  1. “All Capriles wants is a full audit”

    He already got that. 18 in total. Including all the things he is now wanting to audit again.


      • It is a possibility. In fact the CNE is currently preparing an audit of the remaining ballot boxes. But you don’t really expect the whole country to play along with this game do you? After your candidate has clearly shown that he doesn’t care about the truth, or about facts, and that he is capable of telling bald-faced lies to his supporters. Why should the CNE play along?


          • Ah, yes, I’ve got no argument? You still can’t even address the fact that Capriles told blatant lies about supposed “evidence” of fraud. Talk about no argument!


          • “The general definition of an audit is an evaluation of a person, organization, system, process, enterprise, project or product. The term most commonly refers to audits in accounting, internal auditing, and government auditing, but similar concepts also exist in project management, quality management, water management, and energy conservation”.

            Capriles argument play no role in a formal request for an audit. There doesn’t need to be probable cause or anything to ask for one. It should be a very standard thing.

            Don’t play along? why it is about that? So is out pride that the CNE doesn’t do them?


            • It is a very standard thing. 54 percent was audited on the night of the elections. There were 18 audits throughout the whole process.

              When someone demands additional audits, and the only reasons they give are made up lies about “fraud”, then you don’t keep playing along. That much should be obvious, unless you’re too far down the rabbit whole to know better.


              • Right, after the process is key, because you never know if hundreds of thousands of people with fake cedulas spread themselves out across thousands of voting centers and voted without being detected by any of the thousands of witnesses that were present.

                Or you never know if Chavistas in thousands of voting centers across the country somehow submitted votes for hundreds of thousands of people who didn’t show up on election day, but without anyone noticing, despite the presence of thousands of testigos, miembros de mesa, and acompañantes.

                Rodrigo, you’d have a better argument if you just said “we don’t know if perhaps aliens from Mars manipulated the elections.”


              • Right, and after 18 audits the opposition is still claiming fraud. I’m sure that the CNE must be thinking that if they just give them number 19 then they’ll be happy!!


              • I really never bother answering you. But …unless younhave been living in a himalayan cabe physically as well as ideologically you know perfectly well that when you win at poker or bingo, you know have to show your hand/card. AFTER you say you won. Otherwise you can’t cash the prize. Right? Simple. 2+2 is 4


        • “Why should the CNE play along?”

          Because its the CNE’s f–ing job. They have nothing else to do except sit around and wait for their next instructions from Maduro. Why don’t they just do it?


        • If you audit the votes in the machine with the ballot box they will match perfectly. The real problem is who pushed the button.
          The audit the CNE is preparing is a loose of time and resources.


    • este tipo marea poniendo lo mismo en todos lados.

      A ver si entiendes: What Capriles wants is to compare the cuadernos to the lista de difuntos, and match the huellas on the cuadernos to the huellas of the people. This was NOT done in caliente anywhere because it requires a lot of time and research. OBVIOUSLY this will show the chavista fraud and that is why Tiby is so reluctant to allow an exhaustive audit, there is NO other reasonable explanation. If Maduro would make the same request, it would be granted in less than 10 minutes by the 4 locas del CNE.


      • Right, because somehow hundreds of thousands of people entered thousands of different voting centers which fake cedulas of dead people, after having washed off the indelible ink, no one checked their cedulas against the electoral registry, despite the presence of opposition witnesses, and that’s how the election was stolen.

        OBVIOUSLY!! I don’t know how I could have been so dumb!


        • What you are FAILING to grasp is that:
          -the indelible ink is not indelible. This has been proven several times. Con cloro, sale.
          -We have seen several people caught with 40 cedulas. With 6,000 of those you get 240,000 votes. There are 200,000 cubans in Venezuela. That’s more than enough volunteers to particiapate in the chavista voting program.
          -Denying the oposition exhaustive research of the cuadernos speaks for itself: “saldria el fraude”. This is NOT a concession that the CNE makes if they want, this is a RIGHT to the more than 7.3 million people that voted for democracy. Do you deny 7.3 million people of a right, because it seems to you their claims “don’t make sense”? What kind of democracy is that?
          -YOU KNOW that if ANY chavista would ask for the same elements that capriles is asking, the CNE would grant it right away the same day.
          -It must be hard for you, but try to stop and THINK for a second, just for 1 second, you can do it!! If you do, you will REALIZE that the ONLY REASON for denying the opposition their RIGHT to a full audit (not a request, a RIGHT) is because they KNOW that the fraud will show if they do so. If not they would be more than happy to SHOW that their 1,4% victory is legit and not a FRAUD.
          -Para terminar, completa la siguente frase: EL QUE NO LA DEBE, ______________


        • I think you could benefit from hearing an explanation on why these cuadernos are not just useful to audit the transparency of a voting system, but necessary. However, just so you don’t think you’ll get this information from someone biased you can find the explanation the guys from aporrea uploaded to youtube here . You’ll notice that it is Jorge Rodriguez himself giving the explanation, so you know you’re getting the explanation from someone who is supposed to be knowledgeable on these matters..

          I admit the video is somewhat long considering that the relevant bits are somewhere in the middle of it, but the benefit of that is that it includes the context to his statements, so there’s no way to really misconstrue what he says.

          Anyways, have a great day!


    • Get a clue, you lie. No one has yet audited the signatures and fingerprints to determine if they’ve been repeated in multiple cuadernos or if dead people appear as having voted.


        • Get a clue, you lied when you falsely claimed that Capriles already got a full audit, including “all the things he is now wanting to audit again”, but one of the things Capriles wants is to audit the signatures and fingerprints to determine if they’ve been repeated in multiple cuadernos or if dead people appear as having voted has never been audited.

          And you lie again, claiming that you never made the false claim.


          • Get a clue, still you lied twice, and are maybe lying now regarding your conveniently “forgetting”. But you certainly lie with your fingerprint statements because, though some of the fingerprints may not be readable, some are, which makes it possible to detect:
            1) if there are repeats with the readables, and
            2) if the number of unreadables has an unstatistical behavior in the centers with no witnesses.

            You also sidestepped, conveniently, the signatures, which would be readable. And if my guess is correct, we would find that in some centers they did not even bother to fill in the cuadernos after adding fraudulent votes.

            As to your knowing how hard it is to use a brain, well, it doesn’t surprise me that you would think so.

            Do you support proving me wrong by rubbing the cuadernos in my face? I dare you to support analizing the evidence.


            • You sidestepped, conveniently, the fact that it would take years to analyze 15 millions signatures and 15 million fingerprints.

              You also sidestepped, conveniently, the fact that this is precisely why there are other types of controls that prevent this kind of scenario from happening. Witnesses at the voting centers, tinta indeleble, pre-audited cuadernos that make sure fake people are not on the rolls, and random audits that would catch any actas that don’t line up with total electors.

              You’d be better off arguing that aliens from Mars stole the election, because it is about as likely as what you are trying to claim.


              • Get a clue, you misinform. 15million is a manageable number, nowadays, especially considering that a huge number of the fingerprints are unreadable, and only the signatures and info of the readable ones need be compared to the database. Aside from the audit against the database, the remaining signature and fingerprint auditing would be well focused on the centers that are considered highly suspect. It’s what auditors do. By the way, it’s not sidestepping if it hadn’t been brought up.

                You again misinform, conveniently, regarding the controls preventing these issues since we are talking precisely about centers without witnesses, or where their presence is in doubt, and knowing of many fake people are in the rolls. You lie again about the random audits; they do not detect the issues being discussed.

                Regarding martians, talk to cabello who explained very well in 2012 how this kind of fraud could easily be done. I think he may have used the word “easy”.


              • Still waiting for your “evidence” of witnesses being forced out of centers. I notice you’ve “sidestepped that, conveniently”.

                You realize (well, probably not) that for the kind of fraud that you are suggesting to actually take place and not show up in the actas, it would have to spread out over several hundred, probably thousands, of voting centers.

                So you’ve got your work cut out for you. You’ll have to show where those thousands of voting centers were that had no opposition witnesses, and no functioning captahuellas.


              • Get a clue, you lie again. I’ve repeatedly addressed it, so no to the sidestepping: testimonial evidence is “evidence”.

                You also misinform, for the kind of fraud to take place all you need is a number of centers, whose total number of registered voters, dead or not, reaches at least 250k, and no witnesses or witnesses pressured out. This depends on the size of the centers, so it could be in the lower hundreds.

                And again, you lie by trying to sidestep the repeated conclusion that the captahuellas provided no prevention in repeated or unregistered voting, since they would allow both unregistered as well as repeated fingerprints, even incorrect fingerprints, to vote.

                The onus is on the CNE to do as much as possible to remove all doubt; not as little as possible. Again, I dare you to support proving us all wrong via analysis of all evidence.


              • You didn’t show any testimonial evidence. Sidestep…sidestep…

                For it to be in the lower hundreds you would have to have voting centers that have a thousand voters registered, and you would have to control all the votes at those centers without anyone noticing…. sidestep…. sidestep..

                The captahuellas were only shown to not have worked at a few centers…. sidestep… sidestep….

                The onus is on you and Capriles to show EVEN ONE piece of evidence of fraud, which you still have not done…. sidestep….sidestep.


              • Get a clue, you lie; hundreds of testimonial evidences have been gathered, some already presented.

                There were at least 18 thousand centers not audited, of which I believe half had no witnesses. That’s plenty to find 250k votes.

                Since captahuellas are all of the same hardware and all of the same software (if they weren’t then the pre election audit would be null and void), a flaw in one is sufficient to cast doubt on all, but in this case the flaw was found in more than a few, so the doubt became a certainty. They did not and do not fulfill the functions of guaranteeing that A) a single person can only vote once, B) invalid people cannot vote.

                There is no onus on me. Until given access to the evidence, the only onus on Capriles is to continue to request it. Until all evidence is analyzed as per the legal requests, the onus is on CNE to protect and present all evidence, as per the law.


              • You keep talking about this “evidence”. Funny, no one has seen it, and you can’t link to anything. And you accuse me of lying, hahahaha!! Sidestep…. sidestep….sidestep….

                Where did you get 18 thousand centers not audited? My understanding is that one mesa of every voting center is audited.

                Captahuellas were audited before the elections, and were functioning properly, as certified by MUD representatives. Flaws were found in only a few cases. Had there been widespread flaws there would have been more reports. But there weren’t. Keep trying.

                There is no law that says the cuadernos must be audited after an election. Capriles must show evidence of fraud for the elections to be challenged. He has not done that, despite your constant lying and pretending that he has.


              • Get a clue, I’m not a source for evidence. My position is that Capriles has until 15 days after the proclamation to present the evidence he will use to “impugnar” whatever aspects of the election need nullification or revoting. Until then, he has the benefit of doubt.

                Regarding the 18thousand, sorry, I meant mesas, and it’s rounding from 39,000 – (39,000*54%) = 17,940. This is assuming the mesas without witnesses (I believe there are 9,000) were equally likely to be audited, though we know the opposition does not have the actas for many of those, so the 18,000 is really a low estimate.

                You’re not countering the captahuellas facts: same hardware and same software implies that if a “few” had flaws, then they are are all in doubt. The flaws were not about them not working; the flaws were about them allowing the same person to vote many times, and about people who were not allowed to vote being permitted to do so by the machine.

                There is a law that says cuadernos can be audited by request and that they must be kept for a year precisely for the purposes of their availability for the process of “impugnación”. Capriles has until 15 days after the proclamation to present his evidence, not of fraud, but for grounds for investigation. What he has presented thus far has been for different legal processes.


              • Oh, yeah, so you insist there is evidence, but when asked to show any, you just SIDESTEP! If you haven’t seen any evidence, how do you know it exists? Are you sure you should be accusing others of lying when your lies are so plain for everyone to see?

                As for “mesas without witnesses” that is just more nonsense. In any voting center where witnesses are present, they would be present for the auditing of the mesas at that voting center. So, after a MAJOR sidestep, we can go back to my original statement. YOU WILL HAVE TO SHOW THAT HUNDREDS, IF NOT THOUSANDS, OF VOTING CENTERS WERE CONTROLLED BY CHAVISTAS TO COMMIT FRAUD, AND OPPOSITION WITNESSES DID NOT NOTICE.

                Which law says the cuadernos can be audited by request? My understanding is that Capriles has to go through “impugnacion” and in order to do that he has to show at least some actual proof of fraud. Again, after a MAJOR sidestep, we are back to my original statement. You and your lying candidate have to show proof of fraud, something you haven’t done.


              • open the cuadernos de votacion, that is the only meaningful way to do an audit according to jorge rodriguez


              • Get a clue, I insist that there is evidence, and I insist that it is not for me to be showing you. I hope you get to hear about it before the due date, though I take it the maduro camp seems to be moving so as to make it impossible to present it. We’ll see.

                There were many centers with no witnesses, and in others with witnesses, the witnesses felt pressured to leave before the audit, even the close. There are sufficient number of these to accout for the votes in question.

                Look up the electoral law. If you’re too lazy, watch the Rodriguez video where he states it himself in 2012. Capriles will be presenting the material required to trigger nullification or revote, if not in general, then in certain centers.

                I don’t have to show anything.


              • XT, apparently 1 MILLION “people” voted without fingerprints, since they hadn’t been registered. Also, GAC’s /VM’s/Et. Al’.s constant claims as to Oppo witnesses not seeing the fraud is hollow, as are most of their obstructionist arguments, since the Oppo was lucky to have witnesses present in even 50% of voting centers (20M of 40M).


            • BTW, you also lied about there being “hundreds of reported incidents” of testigos forced out of voting centers. You can’t provide evidence of EVEN ONE, let along hundreds.

              This is what it looks like to be a pathetically idiotic liar.


              • That’s idiotic, even by your very low standards.

                There’s no videotaping even supposed to happen in election centers, so how are official observers going to video tape themselves being forced out?

                All that said, the fact that you are so desperate for Chavismo to hold onto power shows just how unhinged you are. Given the state of the country a wise person would want them out of power for awhile… but I guess denial of the disaster is part and parcel of your condition. I suppose it at least means you are a true believer, you’re really crazy enough to think Chavez’s tenure was a long term success.


              • “There’s no videotaping even supposed to happen in election centers, so how are official observers going to video tape themselves being forced out”

                Really, not one of the opposition witnesses who were “forced out” had a cellphone which they could turn on in the event? No one outside who saw this happening thought something odd was going on and was able to film it? No one can identify exactly which centers this took place in. Wonder why that is. Maybe because if they just made up a list of names than people would be able to contact the opposition witnesses in that center and ask them? Everyone who can think critically know how absurd this claim of yours is. So where are the opposition witnesses, and the list of individual vote centers where they did not sign because they were “forced out.” Still no evidence even one of them exists. The only desperation I see is those people who cannot present any evidence but continue to make facially absurd claims anyway because they just cannot admit they lost yet another free and fair election.


            • Funny how the oppo witnesses in over 90% of vote centers completely failed to detect even a single instance of this happening and also did not refuse to sign a single document certifying the vote. The only person lying here, whose lies are than being repeated, is Capriles.


              • VM, not funny. The witnesses had no way of comparing IDs, fingerprints, or signatures between centers. Also, the main concern is centers where witnesses were not present or felt forced to leave.


  2. “Venezuela’s voting system is one of the most respected in Latin America, in which an electronic voting system leaves a paper trail. ”

    Tibisay Lucena:

    “ay, no, mi vida. Las papeletas son solo si se acaba el papel ‘tualé’ ”

    Capriles should insist on this: wasn’t the paper trail one of the differences with those reviled
    systems such as the Dutch one? (the Dutch went back to voting with pen and paper for some years now)


  3. Juan, temo que ni siquiera estas salpicando p’adentro mi pana.

    Too little too late, mate, too little too late.


  4. What kind of a blog this place has become? Its become the kingdom of Maduristas trolls, assholes like get a clue (gimme a break) and viva Maduro (another loser) are ll over the place, not the shadow of an argument, simply there to put a spanner in the works most likely paid Cuban ass kissers. Time to move along.


  5. If you move along you have conceded victory to the payroll trolls.
    I advise:
    1)Keep reading and commenting with intelectual honesty, if you can
    2)IGNORE paid trolls whose job is only to derail ohterwise honest discussions
    3)Keep up the fight. My recongition goes to Francisco, Juan, Emiliana, Gustavo et alias


  6. This isn’t really the flipside of my post, by the way. This is just a detailed elaboration of “but the other guy didn’t wear any boxing gloves!”

    I never doubted that. That’s never been seriously in doubt. Neither now nor – and this is key – before April 14th. I mean Rafael Ramírez was CHC’s head of mobilization!!!!

    There was never any question of these elections being minimally fair.


    • Toro,

      Why are you suddenly so quiet about fraud being impossible with this electoral system? You argued it for years, and now when it matters most you’ve become completely silent? What’s wrong, no honesty?

      And what about Capriles fake “evidence”? What’s wrong, no honesty?


      • Francisco, I’m a fan of this blog and I generally disagree with GAC. But I gotta say, I CAN’T BELIEVE YOU KEPT SAYING LAST YEAR NO FRAUD COULD HAPPEN WITHOUT BEING DETECTED ( and now you’re all like “Oh, you are such morons, it’s pathetic to now request a recount”. Out of intellectual integrity you should back down from your statement that fraud is impossible.


      • Get a Clue. For the day I’ve decided to be a Chavista too. You and I both know that the glorious revolution has nothing to hide. An audit can only show the legitimate win of President Maduro, and will only establish international credibility for the revolution within the revolution. So as a fellow rojo, con mucho gusto, vamos adelante con la auditoria. We have nothing to lose and nothing to hide.


      • Get a clue, he was clear, and even wrote a post to clarify, that he was referring to a specific kind of fraud, that of machine numerical fraud. The fraud in question is not only possible; it’s highly likely. Then there are the frauds that are not even in question, for example, publicly funded propaganda.


        • This is not hard. Simply consult the opposition witness that was presumably present at this voting center, or the miembros de mesa, to see if there were any irregularities. One of the tables at that center was audited on election night.

          BTW, there are also voting centers that go 100 percent for Capriles too. That doesn’t necessarily constitute an irregularity.


          • I haven’t seen those voting centers that went 100% for Capriles, but in any case, it is clear that some areas are pretty chavistas, while some areas are pretty oppo, even to the point of it being possible to get 100% of the votes for either side. That’s not what’s strange. What’s strange in the particular center I showed, is not only that Capriles got 0 votes this time, when he had gotten 68 against Chavez, but also that Maduro got 132 more votes than Chavez!

            I’m not saying this is like the smoking gun that proves fraud happened, but it’s very, very strange and suspicious. It’s hard to imagine 132 people thinking: “you know, I didn’t vote for Chavez, but for Maduro, now, that guy I do like. I’ll vote for him”.


            • Why is that strange? Isn’t that in fact what the opposition was afraid would happen after the death of Chavez? That Maduro would get a sympathy vote from lots of people? Isn’t this precisely why many people from the opposition, and even from this blog, were saying they shouldn’t even go to elections?

              Also, Capriles also got more votes than Chavez in several centers. These kinds of things do not prove anything. This is why you have witnesses at the voting centers, and random audits, to catch if anything strange happened.

              What on Earth were the witnesses for if you all were just going to claim that all kinds of strange things happened regardless?


              • “Why is that strange? Isn’t that in fact what the opposition was afraid would happen after the death of Chavez? That Maduro would get a sympathy vote from lots of people? Isn’t this precisely why many people from the opposition, and even from this blog, were saying they shouldn’t even go to elections?”

                Indeed, I expected the sympathy vote from lots of people, i.e., people voting for Maduro when they wouldn’t vote for him under other circumstances, but I would expect this sympathy vote from a person, if and only if this person had already voted for Chavez in 2012. It’s hard to imagine a person saying “ok, I didn’t vote for Chavez, but now that he is dead, I’ll vote for Maduro because that’s what Chavez wanted”. It makes no sense. Chavez also wanted them to vote for him in 2012, so if they were so willing to satisfy his desires, why didn’t they do so back then?


            • Nothing strange about that at all. In some elections some people vote, others do not. Thus, some people voted this time that did not in October, and some who voted in October did not this time. Simple and something that happens in every election everywhere.


              • So you are saying that people were more motivated this time to vote for Maduro than they were to vote for Chavez. Do you really believe that?

                And then there is the the other issue. This time nearly everybody voted at that center (participation was 96%), so that means that a very large fraction of those 68 votes Capriles got in that center in 2012 flipped to Maduro. It would strange for someone to flip from Capriles to Chavez in such a short period of time, but so many people flipping from Capriles to Maduro is just absurd.


      • How about you reserve your judgement about evidence when it’s presented in a court of law?

        I mean, are you upset the eveidence has not been presented to you personally for your approval?

        Any and all evidence will see light in a court of law, until then any judgements about the value of said evidence is useless, like you GAC.

        Your pal Jorge Rodriguez last year spent a lot of time detailing how useful the notebooks are in looking for fraudulent behavior. The type of audit done Sunday night to 52.9% of the mesas tallies votes against actas against transmittal, but does not show if the same person voted multiple times with different cedulas and signed away like crazy. Firmas planas, for example. Nor does it do anything about “captahuellas” that even let people not registered in the REP vote, as several “acompañantes” can testify to.

        That “audit” does not account for assisted voting, nor for witness intimidation.

        So, in the end, CUAL ES EL MIEDO, CAGONES!!!!!!!!!

        CUAL ES EL MIEDO, GAC? ‘TAN CAGAOS!!!!!!!!!

        Have you been fitted for your fascist armband GAC? There’s a great cobbler in Sabana Grande that makes awesome jackboots. I’m sure he can fit your feet, goostepping in poorly made boots probably sucks!

        Didja clean up your Facebook page yet? Police your tweets to make sure you haven’t said anything that may get you fired? You know, stuff like that can get you fired nowadays, gotta be careful!

        Now, I need to go nibble on some high voltage wires and piss on a transformer, so if you’ll excuse me……….


        • “How about you reserve your judgement about evidence when it’s presented in a court of law?”

          This is a completely stupid argument. We can see that Capriles lied by simply consulting the actas that he was referring to. Saying that it would need to go to court before we can see that is just stupid.

          Here’s a rule. Don’t respond to me until my comment has been presented in a court of law. Why? Just because.

          “The type of audit done Sunday night to 52.9% of the mesas tallies votes against actas against transmittal, but does not show if the same person voted multiple times with different cedulas and signed away like crazy.”

          This is what the audit of the cuadernos is for, to make sure there are not any fake people on the voter rolls. This was done already with opposition representatives. This is also what the witnesses are for, and the tinta indeleble. All of these things prevent things like this from happening.


        • Your comments are nowhere near to be considered at the same level as evidence of electoral fraud.

          You are fraudulent, however, intellectually, materially and spiritually.

          Hopefully you have stocked up on the Depends. You and Maduro will certainly need them.


    • So what should have Capriles done BEFORE the election? Do you really think the CNE or the government for that matter would have agreed to have fair elections?

      You are good at pointing out mistakes, but you rarely propose solutions.


      • I think his argument before the elections was that voters outside Venezuela should have stayed at home and sent their money as campaign contributions to the Capriles campaign, where it would be better put to use.

        I take it now he is saying, they just should have stayed at home, period, and that those who voted and campaigned ANYWHERE were pathetic.

        It is not a compelling line of argument either way.


    • But what’s wrong with the boxing analogy in the first place is that all moral and ethical issues are removed from consideration. Fans cheering you on and voters who want to see democratic principles upheld — these are not the same thing.

      Since the election, the Comando Simon Bolivar continues to receive thousands of detailed complaints from voters. Walking away from these people would not represent a moral victory.

      Quico — you’re kind of phoning it in on this.

      The central question remains — how to fight an undemocratic regime democratically?

      And the answer is — by acting as if the rule of law means something, even when it doesn’t.

      Would love for you to really engage with this challenge…we need your Big Brain back.


      • We also needed Alek Boyd’s big brain back, and look how that ended up…
        (I kid, I kid. But I do get the feeling that you guys often forget, proposals are better than I-told-you-sos).


        • Manuel, I refer you to this comment of mine, from a previous debate in this very website:

          “The MUD *must* condition its participation along what would amount to a “radical” stance for chavismo: let the law be observed. The law. Incredible that we must accept illegal stuff in order to be seen as democratic, don’t you think?”

          How is that in any way different to Lucia’s “The central question remains — how to fight an undemocratic regime democratically? And the answer is — by acting as if the rule of law means something, even when it doesn’t.”

          As per what I propose, also from this blog, a previous comment:

          Alas back then, the “Big Brains” around here were describing my position as radical…


          • Thank you Alek, I agree with almost everything you say in the comment you linked to. And those were, indeed, constructive proposals – my apologies for missing them. Perhaps the “radical” aspect of your position was your suggestion that, if demands were not met (for impartial observers, for a full pre-election audit, etc) the oppo should abstain from participating. Because following your proposal, abstention was the only logical short-term outcome. Which you might think was the best one, whereas others here did not (me included, by the way).

            So what about proposals for the present? I think the oppo is on the right path – they showed that Maduro is beatable (1-2-% difference, with or without fraud, is a tremendously energizing result); they are making a strong case that the government will not accept defeat and cheat its way out of it. In a way, your proposal from back then looks more tempting now, because now it really looks like the oppo have the popular support to actually win a clean election. Does it mean it should call for abstention in the next elections if their demands are not met? In that case I would hope that the government yields to that pressure, because the whole abstention – general strike – march to Miraflores has been tried and did not go well the first time…


            • I am not advocating for abstention. Quite the contrary actually.

              And also for the record, I have never doubted the capacity of the opposition of giving chavismo a run for its money *if* the law was upheld. Since we know that the law *is not / has never been* upheld we need to tell our constituency, and the media, and the international community, that the game is rigged. We need to repeat that until our faces turn blue, laws in hand, again and again and again, instead of sending stupid morons to tell everyone that the system is dizque the best in the world and we have everything under control.

              Think about it: Capriles pre October deemed positions like mine as radical; now he has adopted our position and look at how: 1) that has energised his base, and 2) how has the regime / international community / media reacted.


              • This quote, from your comment linked above, seemed to me like a call for abstention if oppo conditions were not granted:
                “If the game is totally stacked against us, which it is, why accept participation without even making minimum of demands that would condition our participation?”
                Anyway, that’s old water. I do agree with you that “we need to repeat that the game is rigged until our faces turn blue, laws in hand, again and again and again”. The question is, what then?


      • “The central question remains — how to fight an undemocratic regime democratically?

        And the answer is — by acting as if the rule of law means something, even when it doesn’t.”



        • IMO the right question rather is, do you want to fight or do you want to win?

          We will not get this cuban control unless:

          a) they do not longer have anything else to embezzle
          b) We manage to hang them by their balls.

          a) will run its curse, and its a matter of patience, b) will not happen without NAtional activation, coordination, leadership and force.


          • the Cuban control issue will NOT run its curse (course?), and it’s NOT a matter of patience.

            For evidence of patience, look at Cuban dissidents in jail.


            • Course, and yes, I was trying to be sarcastic. Venezuela’s oil revenues even without any reinvestment (last 10 yrs.) are considerable.


      • Lucia: Your comment: And the answer is — by acting as if the rule of law means something, even when it doesn’t. is brilliant. Unfortunately, smart-alecky attitudes get in the way.


  7. I am for the full audit as requested by the MUD, but I do have a major concern, which has been addressed by Quico on this blog before: The kind of fraud that we are talking about here ( I will mention two: folks with multiple ID cards and firmas planas) requires a massive conspiracy.That is, hundreds to thousands of people cheating. with such large number of conspirators, one would expect a few ones to spill the beans to close friends/family. Can the MUD come up with a few remorseful conspirators who are willing to testify to this massive fraud? If not, I see a very slim chance that elections will be repeated either in suspect centers or nationwide.

    Lucena’s 14-minute video of Saturday evening was not meant to dissuade the MUD or its followers, but to shore support among the Chavista base and the international community. So far, she is doing a good job of it.

    I do hope to high heaven that Capriles has a smoking gun somewhere. Otherwise, this bus left the station and it ain’t coming back.


    • your assumption is based on that the perpetrators are trying to get pass the mesa members and not actually the mesa members.

      But yes, it would required hundreds still and it seems to me that finding one should be possible,


    • And in addition to that, you would expect hundreds of documented examples where opposition witnesses objected to people using multiple IDs and made their objections known at the time when this was occurring and refused to sign the vote certification. In fact I would expect that if that occurred than oppo witnesses would have walked out of many of the places where it was happening and at least some would have filmed themselves doing so and explained why? Once again, not one single witness did so.


  8. Subject: La estrategia Simón Bolívar – Hans Ratmiroff

    La Estrategia Simón Bolívar.

    Por: Hans Ratmiroff / Twitter: @ratmiroff
    Esta campaña electoral por parte del comando Simón Bolívar fue excesivamente bien orquestada y organizada, no por nada detrás de la campaña presidencial estaba el sr. JJ Rendon, cuyo récord como asesor es 25 campañas ganadas de 28. aunque también tienen a un asesor en estrategia político/militar muy bueno, tan bueno que el comando Simón Bolívar se quedó tranquilo y dejo que el oficialismo realizara abiertamente su fraude, para ellos documentar todas las denuncias y violaciones, y con eso usarlas como una “Llave” a su favor en un plan que va más allá del proceso electoral. ¡y vaya que la cantidad de denuncias, violaciones e información irregular que han estado documentando ha sido de tal “Contundencia” que tienen muy nervioso al oficialismo!, tan nervioso que bajo presiones del UNASUR el CNE tuvo que aceptar una auditoria, de la cual no hallan como librarse!

    Pero cuál es la estrategia con todo esto?
    La estrategia es la de desacreditar y vulnerar la solides del oficialismo lo más que se pueda, hasta un punto tan intolerable que los entes nacionales e internacionales se vean obligados a actuar, hacer presión, y con esto generar un levantamiento militar que descabece todos los elementos contaminados en el aparato de gobierno y los diferentes poderes, incluso dentro de las mismas fuerzas armadas.
    El oficialismo también tenía su estrategia y previsiones, apenas se dan cuenta de la jugada de Capriles, intentaron generar un estado de violencia para dar un autogolpe de estado, culpar a Capriles y así encarcelarlo, librándose de todas las acusaciones de fraude y legitimar su gobierno ante entes nacionales e internacionales. Pero ese intento quedo frustrado y lleno de falsas acusaciones y hechos de violencia sumamente dudosos, que no hacen más que agravar la situación del oficialismo. Todos esos hechos que incluyen violaciones a los derechos humanos han sido cuidadosamente recabados por el Comando Simón Bolívar para engrosar su documentación.

    Y Porque de toda esta Estrategia?
    Capriles realmente no quería ganar las elecciones, o por lo menos no de esa forma, ya que sería un presidente políticamente débil luchando contra 4 poderes (legislativo, Judicial, Electoral y Ciudadano), colocando a su gobierno en un escenario como en el que se vio el ex – Presidente Hugo Chávez al inicio de su gobierno, donde recibió innumerables protestas e intentonas de golpes militares.
    Capriles no es ningún tonto, no por nada estudio toda su vida a diferencia del líder oficialista, jugo la mejor carta que pudo haber jugado, la cual fue sacar al oficialismo del marco legal y democrático. Chávez todo lo que realizo lo realizo dentro del marco legar, torciendo y retorciendo las leyes pero siempre dentro de ellas.
    Al sacarlos del marco legal y destrozar la credibilidad de los poderes como lo ha estado realizando, busca justificar una purga del sistema gubernamental, y para justificarla necesita desacreditar 3 de los 4 poderes: el poder Legislativo, el Poder Electoral y el Poder Judicial. Al tener destrozada la credibilidad de estos 3 el 4 poder el (Poder Ciudadano) cae solo.
    Su llave para todo esto es “la información de las violaciones recopiladas por el comando” que como dije ¡Es Contundente! y creciente, y usara esa llave paso a paso en cada uno de los poderes que al ser parcializados negaran toda evidencia que se les presente y trataran de evadir las responsabilidades.

    Los pasos son los siguientes;
    Poder Legislativo, Increíblemente el poder legislativo que sería el último poder en ser atacado, ya callo en el juego que maneja Capriles, al negarle el derecho de palabra a diputado que no acepte a maduro como su presidente, hecho histórico en la política venezolana y repudiado nacional e internacionalmente, que se traduce como un golpe de estado legislativo, y destruyo la credibilidad de ese poder. Evidentemente esos diputados seguirán sin reconocer a maduro hasta el final.
    El Poder Electoral representado por el CNE, es el primero en ser atacado y ya se encuentra en Jaque, durante la auditoria se realizara el Mate! Ya que la evidencia sera tan contundente como la negación de la misma y desviaran el caso al poder Judicial. Justamente lo que Capriles quiere y necesita.
    Poder Judicial: Durante el Juicio para impugnar los resultados electorales, el caso sera tan controversial y la actuación del poder tan mezquina que desacreditara al último poder que necesitaba para orquestar su jugada.
    Depende de como sea el escenario después de todo esto, jugara o no su última carta, que es el levantamiento o “salto de talanquera” de un grupo importante del Madurismo, o una impugnación por parte de la ONU en referencia al proceso electoral, y es que Capriles puede usar esa “llave” en la ONU para conseguir la impugnación, y las violaciones por parte de la cúpula de poder tienen molesto a gran parte del verdadero oficialismo, y no hablo de los “Enchufaos”.
    Ya en ese momento, la presión política será tan elevada, y la perfectamente necesaria para justificar el levantamiento militar que realizara la Purga de los poderes. Si no se realizan todos estos pasos, cualquier levantamiento militar previo, quedara vetado por la población y la comunidad internacional.
    Aunque de todas formas, si los poderes intentan salir ilesos y obrar bien ante todas estas pruebas, terminarían reconociendo a Capriles como presidente y desde ese puesto aunque con mayor dificultad junto las pruebas, igual iniciaría el proceso de purga, lo que coloca al oficialismo en “Jaque Mate”.


  9. One thing is clear. If Maduro’s gang had NOTHING to hide in the ‘cuadernos de votacion’, this would be their once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to ridicule Capriles and forever erase him from the political arena. Think about it… CNE giving the opposition the cuadernos/books, and proving that they hide nothing, and that the elections were won fair and square, and that Capriles is truly full of it.

    So, you really have to ask yourself: why would Maduro’s gang (which includes the CNE) not take this unique opportunity to take all credibility away from Capriles, forever?

    After you let that sink in… does anyhow have any doubt in their mind that these lying thieves have EVERYTHING to loose by showing what Capriles is (rightfully) demanding?

    Let’s summarize where we stand: Capriles now asks for ‘impugnacion’, CNE is OK with that ‘as long as there is proof’ for impugnacion. Capriles asks for cuadernos, where he knows proof of Fraud is written now in history. CNE says NO you cannot see the books. This is a country rules by clowns.



    • “Capriles asks for cuadernos, where he knows proof of Fraud is written now in history”

      Oh yes of course he does. And how does he “know” that exactly when he cannot present any proof of any of his claims. Was he able to remotely view all the voting centers on election night at the same time and was thus able to see what no one else, including the 10,000s of oppo observers was able to?


  10. It is clear that the CNE will not comply with the demands submitted by the opposition. It is also not difficult to imagine that the Justice system will ignore or delay for ever any proceedings. The level of irregularities are high. Two of my siblings that live far from any Venezuelan consulates discovered to their horror that someone was kind enough to vote for them, in one case they even polite enough to register for them. I have not checked the situation regarding my adult children who never bothered picking up their ID at the DIEX 18 years ago, I would not be surprised to see that they also have been voting… No wonder CNE does not want anyone looking into this mess with a high powered microscope.


  11. This is just pathetic at this point. If the machines actually allow what this post claims (which they do not) than why not ensure a comfortable majority for Maduro that was similar to what polls predicted he would receive? Oh no, instead the same system that you just absurdly claimed can be manipulated in an unlimited way gave him a close victory. And of course there is still the problem of why no opposition witnesses objected to people voting multiple times or people impersonating dead people if it in fact occurred. Rather hard to conceal and if this had actually happened we would have opposition witnesses ready to present their case and show individual centers where they refused to sign off on the results because of it. Where are they?


  12. Funny that no one has commented or analyzed the results of the forensic statistical study of the CNE numbers made by Alfredo Weil as reported by Roberto Giusti in last sundays Universal . its a treasure trove of statistical ‘smoking guns’ . Its well worth some study among the most statistically learned among this blogs participants.


      • Sorry but I read it in the print edition of el Universal and have no digital access to the article . Hope some one else can give Mr Kepler the link. The following are some highlights :(all based on CNE figures)
        1.- In those voting centres where there are 3 or more tables (79.2% and 11.8 MM votes) , Capriles was the clear winner , when you took in those VC composed of only 2 tables (11.9% and 1.8 mm votes) the percentage of Capriles vote dropped , but the votes from abroad still put him on top, In VC’s with only 1 table ( 8.85 % and 1.3 MM votes) the Capriles votes dropped to 28% while Maduro votes ballooned to 72% giving Maduro the tiny margin which the CNE anounced. The smaller and more isolated the VC the more Maduros votes ballooned out of propportion to the results of normal larger VC.
        2.- Contrary to common assumption many 1 table vc are located not in outback country places but in big cities in places like Coche and Santa Rosalia and in Maracaibo.(U.E Che Guevara)
        3.- There was a correlation between void votes and falling Capriles votes , as if void votes where affecting Capriles more than Maduro’s votes.
        4.- Absentiism showed a strange pattern , normally in most latin american countries absentiism runs arround 30 to 35% , in venezuela its about 20% . According to CNE
        2013 absentiiism remained the same as in 2012 , you’d have expected a growth in absentiism because of the number of former Chavez voters who didnt vote for Maduro but would not vote for Capriles . The suggestion is made that the true voting figures have always been smaller and that perhaps the voting figures are always being inflated by the CNE by means which are not clear.
        5.- Normally the tables at each vc show an uniform split between candidates reflecting the local preferences . In this election however you would find one isolated table in multi table vc’s which showed a very high percentage of Maduros vote totally out of synch with all others , something statistically very unusual . ( Pearsons Test??) , this odd phenomena was more common in VC’s located in places where the maduro vote would be expected to be higher .
        There is more stuff but dont have space for more!!


  13. Again dor the nnnth tome why bother engaging with the trolls? When you go to a casino ( one never knows how “clean” they are) and play blackjack, poker or bingo when you say you win younhave to show your cards ro get the prize. We all knew this casino was super tricky… But… It’s the first time” a golpista” asks for an audit and a “democratic country” not only denies it but imprisons & persecutes dissidents,


    • Más claro no canta un gallo. Pues, SÍ, claro que sale la trampa en los cuadernos! No lo ha dicho muchas veces Capriles? Y por qué siguen haciéndole caso al tal GAC? Blechhhh!


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