Open thread for comments here. We won’t be posting until we’re ready to call the election. I’ll be live on CNN Chile starting at 9 PM Chile time, 8 PM EST, 7:30 PM Caracas time.
57 thoughts on “Butterflies in your stomach? Comment here”
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Caracas Chronicles 
I get mixed results from friends. Most of them were negative. They were dating maduro was up 4 points. For a couple hours I haven’t heard a thing… Recent tweets by Capriles et al are encouraging but I don’t buy them
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Saying *
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Butterflies not..a void.
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Major problems with Twitter & the internet in general.
Started at 6 PM
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OK, things have returned to normal.
ABA & Twitter back
Arreaza: “No hay problemas con Internet ¡Calma! Fue una maniobra breve para impedir más hackeos
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Should we really have butterflies at this point? I think we all know deep down what’s gonna happen and I also know I’m not going to like it! But hey…hope is the last thing to go right?
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There are twits mentioning internet blackouts:
VVSincensura @VVperiodistas 1m
Usuarios denuncian caída de Aba de CANTV. Cuidado con un blackout #Democracia2013
Expand
I am not using ABA…
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#VenezuelaSomosTodos @ComandoSB 1m
Cerrando las mesas nos llegan resultados favorables, contrarios a los que está corriendo el Gobierno. Serenense y asuman su suerte
The last twitter del comando SB
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Last info from Rafael Poleo 33 min ago:
https://twitter.com/PoleoRafael
Rafael Poleo @PoleoRafael 33m
@vimacpol Bien dicho. Es una pelea. Capriles tiene 52 y Maduro 48. Veamos ahora con qué números sale la Tiby.
View conversation
From Carlos Penaloza 2 min ago:
https://twitter.com/GenPenaloza
Carlos Peñaloza @GenPenaloza 2m
CAPRILES: “El Gobierno está sembrando un resultado que no existe” Tiene plena razón y debemos combatir la plaga que invadió nuestra patria.
Collapse
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55-45. Almost the same split of last election. Moving on..
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According to Aveledo, turnout is similar to October 7. That doesn’t feel like butterflies but more like a punch.
http://www.el-nacional.com/politica/Aveledo-cifras-participacion-similares_0_172182928.html
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(Gen.) Penaloza twitter has Maduro up 10 points in the last hour or so, after having been down 3 points before, saying it’s impossible/fixed, and similar to Chavez’s last-hour O7 impossible 3mm surge. Gen. Penaloza was, I believe, the Comandante of the Ejercito that warned CAP/AD top brass months in advance of Chavez’s impending Feb 4 coup, and was ignored.
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I think that the initial exit polls are probably the same as last time. We have a lead…
The difference is that no one wants to jump the gun because the exact same thing happened last time and we all know what happened. At least, we still have some hope!!
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That internet blackout was not nice.
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Scanning mesa resuls in twitter, Capriles tend to show a 5-10% switch from October against Chavez but too early to tell if all urban. Rural will be key.
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Maduro up by 11 points by some, lots of hacking and streaming going in and out. Results in couple hours or less. Crying in MUD-ville.
Rojo Rojito
Cort
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Kinda been secretly hoping that they would hack that guy.. Not sure if this timing behooves us though.
Surely they’ll find a way to say that Capriles’ camp is in cahoots with Anonymous.
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Seems like tons of fraud complaints are now out there…
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Guys, I wanna be very responsible in what in saying that what I am seeing from the numbers (current actas vs. 7 de octubre) is enouraging. I am not saying that we won. But in hell is Maduro able to get 55 vs. 45 like in October. For example: centro cruz chiquita de merida municipio miranda parroquia la venta: capriles 127 maduro 111. Whereas in October it was Chavez 116 Capriles 114. you see? here is the link for 7 de octubre: http://www.cne.gob.ve/resultado_presidencial_2012/pp/13/reg_121004002.html
for current acta simply tweet: cruz chiquita capriles maduro
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that is only a 4% swing, but definitely in the right direction. IF you multiply that by turnout in opposition vs. Chavista areas, we may have a chance…
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My mother has always voted at a school in northern Maracaibo. Last september, 2 weeks before the election, she checked her status at the CNE website and realized they had moved her…….to none other than La Colonia Tovar, Aragua; a 9-hour drive from where she lives. She complained at the CNE main office in Maracaibo, and they told her there was nothing she could do because the deadline for updating her info had expired. She wasn’t deterred and made the trip to cast her vote; my sister and her commented at the time that her voting center was packed with maracuchos and andinos who had been inexplicably moved. A few weeks ago, as soon it was possible for her to do it, she updated her info and was changed back to her original school in Maracaibo. Following her previous experience, she checked her status daily on the CNE site, and then, this last Thursday, she( and the rest of us) were shocked to discover she had been moved to Aragua, once again. And of course, again it was too late to do anything about it. Because her health is not too good, we all decided it was better for her to stay instead of putting her, again, through the hassle of an unnecessary road trip.
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From the Center for Economic and Policy Research:
“Neil Findlay, a Labour party member of the Scottish parliament monitoring today’s elections, has an article in The Scotsman The Scotsman today that reads in part:
Arriving in Caracas on Wednesday at the invitation of the CNE, a state body established by the constitution with responsibility for overseeing the Venezuelan electoral process, I joined 130 international observers invited to independently scrutinise the system. This is the system described by the Carter Centre – a human rights organisation established by former US president Jimmy Carter – as “the best in the world”.
…
The Capriles’ campaign, seeing the polls going against them, threaten not to recognise the result. If, as I expect, Maduro wins then the influence of Chávez will run through his presidency and through the country for many years to come. Whilst their politics could not have been more different, this is something Chávez shares with Baroness Thatcher.”
I’ve read so many reports saying the election was fair and democratic. Are people hearing the contrary?
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No one knows yet whether the vote today will be fair and democratic. That remains to be seen. The Carter Center has said in the past that the system for counting the vote is very good. But of course the conditions under which the vote is held, the mobilization of the Army to bring Government supporters to the polls, the TV coverage which favours Maduro ten to one, the handouts of government gifts only to Chavez supporters–none of this is fair.
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Thanks Jeffry. Appreciate your input.
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The counting of the vote is NOT trustworthy, Carter is a vende-patria, as he was on the Referendum, and in brokering Cisneros’ selling-out of the editorial impartiality of Venevision.
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I believe you NET, but where is the evidence that the vote is not trustworthy? How do we prove that?
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It’s a long story–many statisical studies in peer-reviewed journals, a reversed 60-40 loss on the Referendum (first time US exit poller had missed), a voter registry with virtually all Venezuelans 18/older registered, possible parallel Smartmatic vote registration computer center (rumored, but not to be proved until Regime change),rural areas where 100% or more of residents of all ages vote, etc.
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Would you please care to post a source? Because it seems to me that without one you are just talking out of your butt.
Like “COM” said: Quico has made a very good point on how it is almost (I said almost) impossible to pull off a “Stealth Numerical Fraud”
An when it comes “Campaign fraud” Where are the washing machines ? It seems to me that we just might make it…
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I’m sure that Quico still has that shiny $100 bill for proof of fraude. http://caracaschronicles.com/2012/08/13/about-fraud/
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“Scottish Labour” is a synonym for frustrated communist, nothing more than that.
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Now reporting hundreds of hacks all over, slowing down process but vote outweighs hacks.Only One country capable of this. Guess who…NSA, US Air Force, Navy and Army internet commands.
Cort
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Riiigghhttt…Venezuela would NEVER do anything of the sort…try again.
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Cort’s getting apocalyptic. Good news?
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As someone who been hacked for years and watched by NSA longer( even yours are intercepted) including FBI visiting my jobs and having to deal with Stalinist’s this is nothing. You aren’t coming back either way.
I know more than the average bear, boo boo!
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You strike me as a major national security threat dude.
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Also Anonymous, but they fight for right–Oh, yes, I forgot about the Cubans and the Chinese–but no, they wouldn’t think of doing something like this!
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Anonymous did go to war recently against Israel, Honduras, North Korea and fascist Syrian regime. None that I support.
Cort
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Contrary to what most people in Venezuela might think, the Chinese do not care for Venezuela. Sure some might have find amusing Chavez’s opposition to the US, but that is as far as their sympathy extends.
The day of his death most comments on weibo (Chinese twitter) were negative, some of them even compared Chavez the North Korean Dictaor.
Now why is it important what regular people think of Venezuela in a totalitarian state like PRC? Well because in China hackers remain a loose cannon, the majority of Chinese hackers consists of “angry youth” or “Fènqīng” a ultra-nationalist group of young people that stands -at times without the central governments support- for Pro-Chinese issues. This group feels like their government is weak when it comes to international issues like Senkaku Islands or the South China Sea.
Literally none of them would gain anything from hacking the Venezuelan Elections…
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It’s not like Peruvians would be capable of doing something like that. I mean they have a left wing military many in charge of the country. Surely they must love the circus that Maduro has turned Venezuelan into.
http://elcomercio.pe/actualidad/1563795/noticia-twitter-nicolas-maduro-fue-hackeado-peruanos?ft=grid
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military man
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Whatever you are smoking, I want some of it for later tonight
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It’s Jeff Goldblum, he’s hacking CNE using a busted Macbook from an alien spaceship.
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When the fascists loose, they will blame the US. Then they will stage a coup, bringing a tinpot dictatorship. It won’t last, though, and the upside is they’ll all go to jail.
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This is serious stuff now.
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Nobody switches off ABA if they are winning. That said….even poleo is giving HCR 4% up.
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@HCaprilesVzla: @alcaldeledezma “Tenemos resultados de Caracas, Miranda, Araguia,Carabobo, Zulia, Falcón, Guárico, Apure y Monagas”
@hcapriles: Exigimos a la Rectora Tibisay Lucena el cierre total de las mesas de votación,están tratando de votar con mesas cerradas!Hacer RT
@willycochez A cuidar resultados. Importante q cada venezolano cuide su voto. No están frente a demócratas. Capriles ganó
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This is going to be close!!!!
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Not much different than the last go-around. It looks like HCR might just pull it out and then Bam!
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The difference is they have actual tables to compare to last time….it will be a 5% election either way…
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5 or 25 or .5 it’s all the same. A win is a win is a win and how do you compete with a machine like Chavisimo?
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Looks like its ove,r CNE transmitting results.
Don’t cry for me, Capriles & MUD ville isdown and out.
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CNE is down in the states.
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Not working for me either.
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Jorge Rodriguez makes me sick to my stomach sitting up there saying that the Chavistas had to confront “una maquinaria de guerra sucia.”
What a joke.
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he can start a career as stand-up comedian ;-)
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Reblogged this on absoluteurea and commented:
Mariposas en el estómago?
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