From two different sources I learn that Credit Suisse is quoting a recent Datanálisis survey putting Maduro’s lead over Capriles at 9.7 points. This is down from about 15 points a few days ago. The margin of error is +-2.66%. The Swiss bank believes the race is tightening quickly, but not quickly enough for Capriles to win.
The new poll was conducted between April 1 and April 5, or right about when the campaign officially started. They surveyed 1,300 people nationwide, and used a ballot box to simulate the votes.
If I get the report, I’ll try and give more details.(I saw the report, and that’s what it says)
34 thoughts on “Race is tightening, but not fast enough”
The game is over when it’s over- yogi berra
April 1 was a long time ago.
A week in a political campaign is a lifetime. Specially in times like these.
I believe that to be true. Nor do I know of any principle that races ‘tighten’ at a fixed rate.
I agree – after the turnout in Caracas, it’s possible it’s even a bit closer than 9-10%. Is it possible it’s in the 5-6% range?
LVL said today that it’s 7%
Assuming that’s true, that would mean on election day 1,82% advantage for maduro, which mean 7.26M Vs 7M, or 6,95 Vs 6,7, which is consistent with everyone’s numbers.
Nevertheless, it isnt over until the tiby sings…
and yet April 11th – April 13th are still ahead of us…
It only “photographs” that specific moment eons ago on april 1-5. In election time it’s as far far away… as the andromeda galaxy ;) it was before the caracas rally and the artists x HCR one.
Again, the game is over when it’s over. Vamos a ganar sudao'( Liliana Hernandez dixit)
Don’t you think it a bit naive to believe this stuff ? ; either that or willfully blind?I prefer to think naive.
Now let’s discuss the REAL reasons Maduro might ” win”
Sorry champs but put a fork in it, this race is over and we lost.
to think otherwise is a cute little fantasy…….
This is my take on that:
Considering at march 1st:
If it’s true that by April 1st maduro had a 15% advantage over capriles
I’ll asume the same number of undecided until the end
By april 5th
By april 14th
Now, let’s assume that the % undecided swings like the main race, BUT, to account for the undecidedness, let’s say it’ll affect it by 1/3. Also, let’s assume the starting point for undecided is the same split as the main race:
Dates: march 1st april 1st april 5th april 14th
U. Maduro 16,15 13,10 12,6 11,7
U Capriles 6,36 9,55 10,1 11,1
So, it’s a win for maduro….
However, if we split the undecided vote by half at the start:
Dates: march 1st april 1st april 5th april 14th
U. Maduro 11,25 8,22 7,71 6,8
U Capriles 11,25 14,45 14,98 15,9
Let’s consider this two scenarios:
1: Maduro: 53,7
2: Maduro: 48,8
So far, we have considered a constant number of voters… but there’s a trend on how many votes each side will get, oppo lost badly in december, but chavista vote also lowered considerably, in fact, each one got 35% of the 7-O vote. Capriles looks like he is getting no less that his 7-O vote,question is: Can maduro recover what was lost between 7-O and 16-D? Not even jessee believes that he’ll get the same number of votes as chavez. Taking into account the previously described scenarios, assuming capriles will keep the same number of votes as october,vote-wise it’ll be:
1: Maduro: 7.8 million — 53.7
Capriles: 6.7 million — 46.1%
2: Maduro: 6,39 million — 48,8
Capriles: 6,7 million — 51,2
Seriously, is maduro going to get THAT close to what chavez did on october? me thinks not. Will he do as badly as losing 1.5 million votes? Well, compared to 16-D he will be actually improving by 1 million votes, which is a 1/3 recovery between 7-O and 16-D. Let’s see maduro vote as a function of recover
Recovery factor: 0 25 33 50 66 75 100:
Maduro: 5.5M 6,13 6,33 6,75 7,15 7,4 8
Maduro has to recover 50% of the lost vote between 7-O and 16-D and pray capriles doesnt get a single vote more! I think the VERY BEST maduro can hope for is 7,2 million. Why? 35%of the chavista voters didnt go on 16-D, let’s say a similar share is the hit on the recovery factor (most of them will go to vote, but not all)
Now, can capriles top 7.2? Sadly, It’s a tough question, since he would need an extra half million votes, which is no easy feat on such a short notice…my opinion is: no, the top vote for capriles is 7 million. He’s good, but he won’t snatch 500K out of 1300K chavista votes to get the same total number of votes as october.
Conclusion: this election will be decided by how effective the chavista GOTV operation works, if it works well, they’ll win 7,2-7. It’s their’s to lose.
This is a very smart comment. Carmen Beatríz Fernández is tweeting a similar analysis to this one. Thanks kernel_panic.
Thanks, Juan :)
I agree with your argument. This is still Maduro’s (and the Chavista-State machinery’s) election to lose.
Yes, I think the same. Capriles will move between 6M-7M, the question is how many chavistas will not vote for maduro? Maduro can get anywhere from 6M-8M, so he has a higher ceiling and the same floor as Capriles. He is obviously the favorite, but there is a small chance of winning if chavista abstention is in the “medium” range while capriles abstention is in the lows.
I’m not entirely convinced that you can compare regional elections and presidential elections. The stakes aren’t nearly the same, and Venezuelan voters understand – as they long have – that power lies in the national executive, not the regional executive. Consultores 21 made the same mistake in October, projecting an outcome based on a faulty comparison of fundamentally different electoral events. Which is not at all to suggest that the numbers may not play out as you observe, rather that you have to consider the different dynamics that govern a presidential versus a regional election. As you note, GOTV will be the key, for both Maduro and Capriles.
For what it’s woth, Felix Seijas (a lagitimate pollster often protrayed as Chavista) says Maduro is coming down and the number of “undecided” is growing. He also says if the trend continues, the result is going to be a very tight one. Check out his twitter account.
Pretty much what we all know. The difference between chavistas and opositores is the same as 7-O. The big question is how big will the chavista abstention be.
This was before the artists, the Caracas rally and Maduro’s continued bumbling-fool speeches.
There is a slim chance Capriles may take it after all. I will be crossing toes and fingers, but am not getting my hopes up. Still……………….it makes you wonder about what can happen the night of the 14th.
I truly ope that oppo voters vote in the afternoon, and that they stick around their electoral centers to witness counting and to demand audits.
I have a feeling we are going to see some wild stuff Sunday night.
If you are the praying type, stock up on candles and images of your favorite saint/deity/supernatural beings and start praying!!!!!!
Oh, and VOTE dammit!!!!
hear hear. This data was before the Maduro ‘Carmen Miranda’ strategy:
VOTE VOTE VOTE!!
I already have my train ticket to go to London. Fingers crossed!!!
The ballots will speak, but again I am going with our pityloss prediction by half a nose. I’ll be glad to be proven wrong. The only thing I hope for is that the opposition leaders spare us from all the smiley innuendos and “we know what happened” phrases during election night. I suppose this is all to pressure the CNE from ballot stuffing, but they bust my hump.
It would be funny if Caprilles got more votes than Maduro, but less than 50%. I am certain the CNE would push for a second round then.
Bad for Venezuela, but funny.
We have no ballotage in Venezuela. You can win with the largest minority. But in a polarised election, it hardly ever happens.
JC, can you share the CS report with us?
This blog has already discussed the track record Datanalisis has, which has predicted the results in a fairly accurate fashion….that said, why do they release reports with dated of over a week ago? A lot has changed in the campaign since Capriles rallies in CCS & Barinas.
because surveys take time to compile… if fieldwork ends today, by the time the data is collected, processed and analyzed, it usually takes another 3-5 days…
I don’t know how to post pdfs on the blog. If you email me, I can forward it. Having said that, the report only includes the little information I posted here. There’s nothing else Venezuela-related in it.
Here’s another secondary source with the detailed data:
Capriles is going to win! I don’t care what the polls say, there’s something in the air this time around, I can just feel it. The people of Venezuela have had enough.
The question probably is, can the so called machinery backfire? Maybe people who doesn’t want to vote for Maduro and prefer to abstent they will be called and towed via pressure to an electoral center, who knows, maybe some of them will vote for Capriles es retaliation…
I mean as the election stands now only a miracle can make Capriles president, but history is full of such miracles,,,
Maduro is going to win because he has to win. There is too much money riding on that horse Or donkey (cuba,brasil,nicaragua,boliburgueses,etc…). There is no more democracy in this world.
Look at the USA, Wall street is the master and the other 302 millions are their puppets.
Check this analysis
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