Chavismo sweeps the board except for Miranda, Lara and Amazonas, with Bolívar on a knife edge. For the first time in who-knows-how-long, not a single Venezuelan governor will come from the Adeco genus, so the clout of Omar Barboza and Henry Ramos within the MUD takes a big hit.
In fact, not a single old-style oppo pol pulled through anywhere: the Klingon death grip the Salas clan had on Carabobo is broken, and the underwhelming Morel is out in Margarita, as is Pérez Vivas in Táchira. 16D could be remembered as the meteorite strike that finally drove the opposition dinocracy to extinction.
Interestingly, Henri Falcón outperformed the opposition’s October showing in his state by 14 points, while Henrique Capriles only did 5 points better in Miranda than he had done in October. It will be lost on no one that a 14-point swing nationally would be enough to overcome chavismo’s October advantage, whereas a 5-point swing would not be. It’s a good thing those two are chummy, because people are going to be warming up Henri Falcón’s ear in the coming days.
9:16 PM: Anzoátegui for PSUV. Apure for PSUV. Aragua for PSUV. Barinas (Chávez’s brother) for PSUV. Mérida (a state the opposition won in October) for PSUV. Miranda margin closer than thought. Monagas for PSUV. Portuguesa for PSUV. Sucre for PSUV. Táchira (another state the opposition won in October) for PSUV. Vargas for PSUV. Yaracuy for PSUV. Zulia was close. Nueva Esparta (another opposition state) for PSUV. Bolívar is too close to call.
9:05 PM: Tibisay Lucena (PSUV) talking.
8:49 PM: It pains me to write this, but Zulia governor Pablo Pérez (Opposition) has lost his reelection bid. He lost to former governor and former Presidential candidate Francisco Arias Cárdenas. This is a huge blow to the opposition, as my home state is the most populous in the nation.
8:48 PM: Multiple sources confirm that Amazonas governor Liborio Guarulla (Opposition) has been reelected.
8:43 PM: Quick count in Miranda suggests Capriles won comfortably, by more than ten points. This would be huge heading into a presidential contest.
8:40 PM: The new governor of Trujillo is on the U.S. Treasury Department’s list of alleged drug kingpins. Way to go, Trujillanos.
8:37 PM: Lizeta Hernández (Delta Amacuro) and Erika Farías (Cojedes), both PSUV candidates, have been elected governors.
8:33 PM: Henry Rangel Silva (Trujillo), Ramón Rodríguez Chacín (Guárico) and Stella Lugo (Falcón) have all won their races. All belong to the PSUV.
8:28 PM: Multiple sources confirm Lara Governor Henri Falcón (opposition) has been reelected. Lara is the fourth most populous state in the nation.
8:05 PM: I think it’s safe to say that the doomsday 23-red-states scenario for the opposition didn’t materialize. We are exceeding expectations (which were horribly low). We’ll lose some, we’ll win some…
7:59 PM Caracas Time: After consulting multiple sources, we’re calling it: Henrique Capriles has been reelected Governor of Miranda.
wow! That is crucial!
LikeLike
There is a God.
LikeLike
P.S. By what margin?
LikeLike
Mijita, ¿no queréis un Toddy frío también? :) Apparently not close, I’m hearing 8-10 at least, but I’m not so sure about that.
LikeLike
Toddy frio? Donde???
LikeLike
not close is very good.
pásame ese Toddy, quieres? Pero caliéntamelo un poco que acá hace frío.
muito obrigada.
LikeLike
Y unas mandoquitas también…
LikeLiked by 1 person
Deberías escribir siempre en maracucho, Juan…
LikeLike
God bless!
LikeLike
I never understood the Miranda scare. Even when Ocariz was the elected candidate, polls gave him an ample lead over Jaua.
LikeLike
Good, now let’s hear Tibi confirm it.
LikeLike
I’m desperately hoping the Barinas rumor to be true.
LikeLike
It’ll be true when Caracas Chronicles calls it! Not sure yet.
LikeLike
I’ll file that one under too-good-to-be-true… but hey, one can dream!
LikeLike
I am looking forward to your comments guys
LikeLike
Lara and Amazonas in the bag, too!
LikeLike
AAAAAAWWWWW YYYEEAAAAAAHHHH! I knew it all along.
LikeLike
What about Zulia? I’m fairly concerned about the results there, my set of chivos didn’t say anything good… But they’re from PJ, so what do they know
LikeLike
It’s tight is what I’m hearing. Not ready to call it either way.
LikeLike
True, I hope bocaranda is right, but man,pablo sucked BIG TIME…
LikeLike
It’s hard to me to understand how they could have gotten such a tight result… I never doubt that Perez would win there. The night is young, we’ll see.
LikeLike
True dat, I hope that bocaranda is right. Man, pablo suckd BIG time…
Also, check out what the devils says, if true, it will be awesome :)
LikeLike
Everyone had been scared of a political humiliation in Miranda. It happened in Zulia instead.
LikeLike
Bocarandas tweeter says that oppo got zulia,lara,merida,tachira and miranda and that monagas and barinas are too close to call
LikeLike
Bocaranda proves his mettle once again.
LikeLike
Por dios… el juego no se acaba hasta que cante la gorda… es decir, Tibisay…
LikeLike
Me dice un pana que está ahí en el comando de Capriles que en Miranda la ventaja es de 5 puntos nada más
LikeLike
a mi me estan diciendo once puntos…
LikeLike
Bueno, ojalá tu fuente sea la acertada. 5 puntos me parece una victoria bien cagada para ser Miranda ¿Sabes algo de Barinas? Hay demasiados rumores de que el Adán perdió
LikeLike
En esta masacre haber ganado por uno o por cinco es irrelevante. Aparte de Falcón y Capriles, estas elecciones dejaron fue una morgue de cadáveres políticos.
LikeLike
Alternatively they just drove a wooden stake through a series of undead opposition zombies, to mix my monster metaphors…
LikeLike
The results are a disaster, but somehow, within the debacle, they define what should be the strategy and empower Capriles more than ever as the leader of the opposition.
LikeLike
exacto. Proyecto Venezuela, UNT, AD, COPEI, VP, etc.
Brace yourselves, a huge political realignation is coming.
LikeLike
realignment, my dear. Then again, this is CC, el país donde vuelan las cucarachas.
LikeLike
thanks, syd. Venezuela: el territorio de lo posible
LikeLike
creative destruction?
LikeLike
told you
LikeLike
Good call Pardo. My only mistake of the night.
LikeLike
Oh, it was my mistake. Or rather, a rare flub from Omar.
LikeLike
Well, my best prediction and the one I passed to Capriles HQ was one with a victory margin of 8 pts and a margin of error of +/-3.pts. So I would not call it a flub, moreover given the shitty data that I had access to :)
LikeLike
CNE Baranda time now.
LikeLike
Zulia: noooooooooo!!
LikeLike
Geez. I can’t believe we lost Zulia. I’m quite sad right now. Huge blown for UNT.
LikeLike
Pablo deserves it… he did bad as dogpoo
I hope that this means the demise of UNT
LikeLike
It certainly changes the dynamic within MUD…
LikeLike
It certainly shuts up many antiPJ voices around.
LikeLike
Irrelevant, with this results I can say that the oppo is joint to another body thru an inclined plane wrapped helically around an axis
LikeLike
It’s sad that POS like Arias Cardenas and Rangel Silva are going to be governors.
LikeLike
And Bigger POS Rodriguez Chacin?? Only in Venezuela, Compadre. And we still have yet to hear about Ameliach .
LikeLike
Forgot about that one, put that on the list too.
LikeLike
sorry to know about Zulia. Margin must have been sharp, for it was a touch-and-go call.
LikeLike
If Carabobo and Zulia are lost it means that this is not the night for the oppos batesquebrados. If we lose Bolivar and Anzoategui then it is true.
LikeLike
All of this argues very poorly for any near-term Oppo Presidential win. Que Viva Chavez!!!
LikeLike
Chávez won in Barinas…
LikeLike
Wow, Chacín got 70%
LikeLike
A Total Disaster. Venezuela on a fast track to becoming the poor Cuba of South America, a future it deserves, if the electoral results were not fixed.
LikeLike
Pre-vote, I didn’t read any comment from the MUD regarding logistics to ensure ‘el resguardo de los votos.’ Gracias, MUD.
LikeLike
Que desastre… el chavismo sin chavez tiene chance.
LikeLike
all of the states that change from blue to red (zulia, carabobo, tachira, nueva esparta), in my opinion they are dinosaurs or dinosaurs parties. carabobo, nva esparta: governors that has been 10+ years in the state. zulia is almost the same as pablo perez is rosales dauphin.
LikeLike
On second thought, this time the new color in fashion is olive green. Too many former military men in charge of states.
LikeLike
Nos jodimos. Que desastre.
LikeLike
It’s a good thing Amazonas looks really big on the map. If we get Bolivar, bigger still. Other than that, a rough night for the opposition. Nos golpearon, pero no nos noquearon.
LikeLike
Some of those knocked out deserved it so.
LikeLike
You’re the kind of guy I wouldn’t want to bet on in a fight–basically flat on his back on the canvas, saying, “Me golpearon, pero no me noquearon.”
LikeLike
Bueno aja pero si es verdad…
LikeLike
Hey…dejá de robarme los tuits, maracucho!
LikeLike
Jeje HT: Omar.
LikeLike
“It’s just a flesh wound..”
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dhRUe-gz690
LikeLike
I never comment, but I gotta tell you guys, moments like this make me understand that maybe Juan is right, maybe we are truly unelectable
LikeLike
OK, on the other hand: On October 7th we won two states, tonight, in a very bad environment for us, we won three, perhaps four. And our leader still has a job. Progress?
LikeLike
As MLK Jr. once said: “Human progress is neither automatic nor inevitable…”
LikeLike
For what is worth, MUD outperformed at least my expectations: I really thought we’d win only in Lara, and perhaps nowhere. The October hangover was murder for MUD mobilization, and Chávez’s new health problem brilliantly exploited for PSUV’s.
LikeLike
Yes! Silver linings.
LikeLike
What “won” was the holdover PSUV maquinaria from the October Presidential Election, and the continuing illegal use of Government resources/coercion/Misiones/Mercal/employment for PSUV candidates.
LikeLike
I think sympathy for Chávez played a role here too. That, and a seriously under-funded opposition.
LikeLike
The machinery is everywhere. I saw it first hand in Merida this week.
LikeLike
Other lesson of the day, the opposition needs to create a more effective machinery in order to stand a chance in an upcoming presidential election.
LikeLike
Yeap… Looks like that it’s gonna be a monumental effort. Given the circunstances.
LikeLike
“Sympathy For The Devil”-Great song, bad for Venezuela. The “silver lining”-the Trolls will be dancing around their Faerie circles at the next full moon (and, on this Blog)
LikeLike
I see silver linings in these dark clouds.
LikeLike
In a statistically relevant test today, the MUD proved that governors with at least 3 terms (not necesarily consecutive) and not subjected to primaries are not preferred by the electorate.
Is the lesson clear now MUD????
LikeLike
Is the MUD even relevant, now?
LikeLike
And yet no candidate coming from a primary win was elected (unless we count Velasquez)… Puzzling.
Silver linings but no growth for the first time in 6 years.
LikeLike
Sounds like narco links are an important electoral consideration. Or in Chacin’s case, good looks.
LikeLike
Guys, start being “pragmatic” and “logical” (as you claim to be):
Think drug traffic. Period.
Táchira, Mérida, Zulia, Apure on the border… (uh, do I need to say more?). Trujillo, Aragua, Guárico and Carabobo in the middle, as “aliviaderos” to get the “alijos” to cool for a while… Then, by land, with the protection of the “Guardia Nacional Bolivariana”… to Sucre, Anzoátegui and Nueva Esparta, so near Trinidad and the rest of the Caribbean nations… just need a “peñero” (best investment now, I would say…) and a little luck… and Vargas too… you’ll just need a yacht there…
We are an actual “narco-state”, officially, from this day onward… the routes are as clear as the lines on your hands if you look at them… with oil to boost, and proven links to la Vascuña and Colombia and Irán and all the rest of the narco-terrorist countries!
Wining Miranda, though it’s good, seem like a “Miss Sympathy” title from this point of view, I think. Un “saludo a la bandera”. A consolation prize…
LikeLike
You just forgot to mention the United States of America, the biggest narco-state of all…
LikeLike
Por cierto espero que no dejen sólo y abandonado al pobre Velásquez en Bolívar y esten pendientes de cualquier vaina que le quieran echar.
LikeLike
Anja…
LikeLike
“For the first time in who-knows-how-long, not a single Venezuelan governor will come from the Adeco genus, so the clout of Omar Barboza and Henry Ramos within the MUD takes a big hit.”
… couldn’t agree with you anymore.
Today we can say with certainty that the influence that AD – COPEI – UNT exerted over the MUD will be dimmed to an irrelevant point, so Ad-UNT folks end up paying the price for not being decisively active during the presidential campaign of this year. They made the BET that Chavez will die soon of Cancer, and PP will become candidate, since HCR already lost one presidential election, and with PP, AD will be restored to its former glory. Se quedaron sin el chivo y sin la verga… or something like that.
I can only count as real opposition win the reelection of Capriles, the other two came from the other side. Sorry guys but I don’t like and trust salta talanqueras.
LikeLike
If you thought the demise of old parties was a good thing is because you don’t know that Primero Justicia monster from inside. It’s full of AD, COPEI, and even worse, Partido Popular acolytes.
And I’m sorry but talking about Brinca talanqueras, where do you think Capriles comes from?
The transition will be a long one, and the start point hasn’t even come up yet.
LikeLike
So you think that Capriles is salta talanqueras? Interesting why, care to elaborate that.
For your rant you must be Anti-PJ, but I’m not Pro-PJ, but I think they might have that new air, that is so feared even among chavista inner circle.
Nobody is giving a tear for those parties, they had it coming, they eluded a generational and democratic changes for so long, that people got tired of them. So good bye to you then. So yes, I’m super freaking glad that they are long gone and for good. That means that Chavismo will have no excuse, nor will have anyone to blame, when the country hits the bottom of the crapper. People will understand that socialism is not going to work, no matter what, that the socialism had all the money, power and time to implement their agenda, and still the country is not better than 14 year before, that we are even worst! Ask Greece, as Spain, ask them if Socialism worked for them. And yet we have all these leftist, they have the nerve to blame Capitalism.
From this point, a new generation of politicians, left – center – right, should be coming, to do things right. Otherwise this country doesn’t deserve to exist, and might as well to sell it by pieces, to the Chinese, Russians, Brazilians and even Colombia might be willing to buy Maracaibo and Tachira for themselves.
LikeLike
Not so fast (agianst AD, UNT, PV and COPEI):
http://yvpolis.blogspot.co.uk/2012/12/una-coalicion-de-partidos-regionales.html
LikeLike