The Talanquera is Made of Cats

Big news today as PSUV moved to expel the popular, long-time independent governor of Monagas State, José Gregorio “El Gato” Briceño, from its ranks for the sin of prioritizing his voters’ health and safety over the line handed down by de facto President Diosdado Cabello.

The backstory here is complex, but the final straw seems to have been Briceño’s refusal to allow water still polluted by the oil spill in the Guarapiche river to be pumped through Maturín’s municipal drinking water system. The Central Government’s insistence on passing off potentially cancer-causing water through to people’s homes constitutes its own kind of criminality; not content with that, they’re now punishing the guy who refused to let it happen.

The decision to boot El Gato is the first clearly visible instance of de facto president Cabello trying and failing to keep party discipline in Chávez’s absence. My working hypothesis is that this trickle of dissent is going to grow into a flood as Chávez’s condition deteriorates over the coming months.

If he hopes to steal the mantle of Stability Candidate, times like this are critical to the success of Henrique Capriles. Because Capriles needs people like el Gato Briceño to believe there’s life after the Talanquera jump. He needs to lower the costs of switching sides, and portray himself as a safe harbor for the losers from PSUV’s faction wars.

If he plays it well, he’ll not just be bolstering his own case as the Stability Candidate, but he’ll be helping to quicken and deepen the brewing defection cascade.

If HCR is worth his salt, look for him to share a Maturín stage with Briceño in the coming days.

57 thoughts on “The Talanquera is Made of Cats

  1. Interesting postion for HCR. Getting El gato on the bus of progress could help getting a major push not just in Monagas, but in Oriente. IMHO, Oriente could be the decisive region in the Oct 7th. election. Anzoategui and partially Sucre showed signals of change during the 2010 AN election. Delta Amacuro is chavista territory but Monagas, specially after the Guarapiche incident, is up for grabs.

    In the other hand, how that leaves the winner of the State primary, Soraya Hernández? If there’s a possible deal in place (quid pro quo), how could that leave her? Interesting situation ahead.

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  2. clasical dilema here!:

    lowering the cost of jumping the Talanquera (Kudos to your post tab “talanquera”) vs. Lowering the costs of being an acomplice to crime for 14 years, and then, conveniently jumping the talanquera.

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  3. Ok, Quico, I have to take issue with one thing about your post: what a horrible title!

    I mean, with a guy called “the cat” and so many feline puns readily available …

    “Cat got your tongue?”
    “Curiosity killed the cat”
    “Cat-nip for democrats”
    “Monagas is purr-fect”
    “Here, kitty kitty”
    “Who will bell the cat?”
    “In the hunt for Big Cats”

    I could go on and on…

    But you chose something about a talanquera being made of cats? Sorry, I just don’t get that. What *is* a talanquera, anyway? Sounds like a caraqueño word if I ever heard one.

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  4. He needs to lower the costs of switching sides, and portray himself as a safe harbor for the losers from PSUV’s faction wars.

    Does that mean that PJ’s costs of switching sides is, at the moment, high?
    Doesn’t HCR already portray himself as a safe harbor for hte losers from PSUV’s faction wars?

    P.S. Hate cats, but love the title “Here kitty, kitty”. First prize goes to Vladimir Villegas for his
    “En el Psuv no se puede decir ni miau porque te expulsan.” Just purrr-fect.

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  5. I don’t know the backstory but from afar this looks like an awful decision by Godgiven. In an election year, para rematar!

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  6. What a huge gift Diosdado Cabello has made to democratic Venezuela. A guy with a conscience.

    Let’s hope Henrique gives welcome parties even faster than Diosdado keeps booting out people.

    And don’t worry about the worst elements of chavismo. Contrary to “El Gato”, they don’t have much of a good conscience to stand up, speak up and be expelled. Their bad conscience, hate and resentment will keep them jalando until the very end.

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  7. You ahve finally descended to the level of Rafael Poleo in depth of speculation and wishful thinking. And I thought you were intelligent?

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  8. The next governot of Monagas will be Yelitza Santaella….. escríbanlo……..El Gato will lose all the chavista votes that propelled him to governor……as will Henri Falcón in Lara.

    When Chavez thrashes HCR and his US/Israeli backers on October 7th, the opposition will be lucky to win 2 governorships. Escríbanlo!!

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  9. “prioritizing his voters’ health and safety”

    ITYM “his citizens health and safety”; the polluted water would affect everyone, not just voters, and not just those who voted for Briceno.

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  10. Hey, hey, you guys are going too fast on this. First, as “Intrinculis” said, Briceño is no saint and, at the very least, the MUD should consult grassroots opposition leaders in the state before rushing to support him. Second, it shouldn’t be Capriles’ job to take him in, and still less in a few days. Both his supporters and the MUD bases should have time to adapt. Finally, count on the PSUV, with the efficient help of the Cubans, to unearth his worst skeletons in the coming days.

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    • Duly noted. Maybe you’re right. But if we’re going to make a stability omelette, we will need to crack some eggs open…

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    • Cal is right. Briceño has a lot of very nasty skeletons. I have been watching a little bit of his actions. He is as much of a crook as those within the PSUV go. Chavismo can use that very well as munition now that he is not with them. Not only that: he will be very bad for us.
      The guy was an Adeco who then abandoned the Adecos when he saw fit, he and his family switch then to Chavismo and he starts to talk publicly about how criminal the 4th Republic functionaries were and how they had let Monagas go down (never mind he was a major in Monagas during that 4th Republic). There have been complains from very low level Chavistas and farmers about violence perpetrated by his police, led by people close to him and to some terratenientes.
      This is the first hit I found in google
      http://laclase.info/nacionales/represion-en-el-estado-monagas-contra-el-movimiento-campesino but there is a lot more concrete accusations about people close to him killing farmers/squatters and that has been going on for quite some time.
      No, we don’t need him. Let them fight each other.

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    • I don’t think HRC or the MUD must give the guy full endorsement just for the sake of it. It should be just business as usual: if the guy has something to offer, fine. If the guy is just useless, let the guy on his own.
      On the other hand, I believe HRC should make clear what’s his stance regarding the polluted water issue in Monagas. A single tweet endorsing Briceño’s concern for people’s health could help in the bridge-building efforts Toro suggests. He might even add some centralism vs. federalism to win over some of the PSUV governors and mayors that are probably tired of living in someone else’s shadow…

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      • I really dont know the intríngulis (or Intrinculis for the pana LuisF) but the more I read about the thing and reading the troll’s comment saying that Yelitza Santaella is going to be the new governor of Monagas it seems more like a power play from Diosdado to impose his people than about the river pollution.

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        • Yelitza Santaella was governor of Delta Amacuro from 2000 to 2008. If they can’t find someone in Monagas, they will import it.

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          • According to El Universal the troubles between el Gato y Diosdado started 4 years ago, they have probably never trusted him because he was an adeco who saltó la talanquera in 1998. But the most important part is seeing if this is the beginning of a purge of the PSUV by Diosdado of anyone he doesn’t like.

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  11. Hablando de per seculo seculorum….se me ocurre una frase que contiene las siguientes palabras: 7 de Octubre, patada y per seculo

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