After disappearing for a few days (and leaving in his trail a swathe of rumours about his health), President Hugo Chávez reappeared today in what appeared to be a live broadcast from his home state of Barinas.
In a dramatic speech, with his daughter at his side (apparently holding back tears), with Vice-President Elías Jaua behind him wiping the sweat off his forehead, he admitted having gone to Cuba over the weekend for some medical tests, and announced that he is to have surgery again. He says doctors have discovered a “lesion” in the same area of his previous operation (the pelvic area) that requires surgery.
Venezuelan journalist Nelson Bocaranda had been tweeting about this all weekend long. Today many people chastised him and others for believing him. Turns out, he was right.
Caracas Chronicles 
I can’t fathom who could have the total collapse of journalistic acumen to chastise you for chasing Chávez cancer rumors! Hacks!!
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¡Ah, yo creía que me ibas a mandar bajar el post! No joda…
In case you’re wondering, folks, Quico gave me a tongue-lashing yesterday for even remotely buying the possibility that all these rumours were true.
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It has been very strange he has reduced his twitting so dramatically. We cannot be sure other people are not twitting on his name, but if no one is twitting for him…
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Reduced is not even the word… He practically became invisible on Twitter.
If he hardly made new tweets, so what the 200 people who operate the account were doing then?
http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/noticias/actualidad/200-personas-operan-la-cuenta@chavezcandanga.aspx
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I mentioned that: from almost 100 tweets to 3 in January and 0 now.
Those people are checking the tweets sent to him. Apparently, nobody can write for him.
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And what they do with all those tweets? Putting them in virtual rooms in Miraflores where he can later ignore them?
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Not only his account, also the rest of high profiles of the gov. very quiet these days.
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dale duro, Juan.
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And as usual, the ambiguity. No word on the type on cancer, and now “a lesion in the same area”.
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Bueno, that is some of the weakest circumlocution I can imagine. A lesion? Give me a friggin’ break the guy has another tumor. Duh!
Interesting bit: the Miraflores machine is springing some leaks. Yesterday’s rumor storm is a sign of the wheels coming off of the Sala Situacional…
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My friend the pathologist just told me: “es metástasis.”
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He said it is not a metastasis, but, I think it probably is, but he/they don’t want to call it so “until sure” (ok, it could be another thing, but…). It is on “the same region” and was detected as he underwent tomography and MRI and “another inspection method”. That would be colonoscopy me thinks. It adds to a metastasized colon (?) cancer to me, after chemotherapy, chances are very bad to survive this (independent of cancer type, with some exception like testicular cancer). Maybe there is some physician with better knowledge to correct me.
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but juan, at least a few years back, oncologists don’t usually operate methastasis, it’s common lore it will only make the cancer spread faster???
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Normally it is not worth operating, if there are metastasis it is not only one. maybe Chávez has luck and it is the only one. But I think, por ahora…
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Yes I I thought that is the case. But I was talking to my physician friends and they told me that Cuba is lagging in cancer treatment. They tell me that the tumor is the kind that the goverment reported, is the kind that must not be operated because that could cause the tumor to spread and this was the decision taken by the cuban doctors.
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I thought that spreading is not facilitated, the problem is that you couldn’t find all cells that already dispersed (but are not detectable at the time). Remember he told this a couple of times, not a cancerous cell left… And if this is from the original cancer, then they are chemotherapy-resistent. So you have no more weapons left.
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We’re all oncologists now! quessssgracia!
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Nope, I clearly stated I’m not.
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No, we aren’t. But I think that we are triying to fill the gaps left by the goverment. I don’t believe it’s the healthier practice but what a hell. Al least we are having fun ahh? :)
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A good place to find basic information:
http://www.cancer.gov/cancertopics/factsheet/Sites-Types/metastatic
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And about recurrence:
http://www.cancer.org/Treatment/SurvivorshipDuringandAfterTreatment/UnderstandingRecurrence/WhenYourCancerComesBack/when-cancer-comes-back-what-is-recurrence
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this may be the cause of his sudden true confession: advice from lula’s advisor segnor joao santana:
http://www.lapatilla.com/site/2012/02/20/lulificar-a-chavez-es-el-reto-del-asesor-brasilero-del-presidente-foto/
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I have read it. Working on something.
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If he is indeed being more open about his condition because of Santana, I would say that’s a good thing for all of us, chavistas and not. It would be nice if Chavez suddenly started to behave like, you know, a real statesman with the best interest of the country on his mind.
Following that thought… if he is not going to be able to campaign, and decides not to play dirty tricks like postponing elections, what do you think would be (in his mind) in the best interest of the country (revolution)? Would he consider having someone else run instead of him? A family member? I hope the Capriles team is preparing all kind of contingency plans…
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otra botadera de plata. when will chavez get it? as aveledo hinted, chavez is an ill man. after news of his *lesion*, it’s clear that he’s not getting better.the last thing he needs is to run for re-election. evidently, he’s delusional, or believes he has nothing to lose on his way to martyrdom.
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He wants to be our Perón and have his daughter pull an Isabelita. I just hope I am wrong.
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Is sad how Chávez has to appear at least one time a week in order to avoid rumours. And even sadder that none of the rumours are about his health but about his sickness. Sad for him I say. But I’ve always been skeptical about this sickness and the rumours that he is going to die. I believe he is quite crazy to start the waves of rumours himself.
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Now that you added the video I have to add: carómetro.
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It seems that Izarra & Cabello are not in the “primer anillo”…
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Unbelievable… all these months with him saying at every opportunity: “Estoy curado! Es un milagro! Creanme!”. Now, “I have to get surgery again”. #FACEPALM
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I was wondering… exactly how do the Chavista faithful feel about having been kept in the dark and deceived?
I know how I would feel: Angry and betrayed. But how I would think and feel is not an accurate barometer of the Chavista reaction. Is there anybody with Chavista friends and family who can tell us what is the average Chavista reaction to this?
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Their automatons they think what ever the Fuhrer say to think.
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I think the most telling Chavez comment is “I’m not immortal”: preparing his followers for the worst.
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someone was whispering that in his ears for the past
13 years and it finally hit home
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Who is this Court Jester? Hugo’s policy has been to dump anyone suggesting otherwise
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No one who has cancer can say they are cured, your always in remission, only someone
like Chavez who believes he can fool all of the people all of the
time would say hes 100% cured
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ni rizarra ni cabello ni el drogo… only papá fidel… he is absolutely swollen. well we shall see if his new advisor’s advice really makes a difference. .
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João Santana is too little, too late, “true” confessions notwithstanding.
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“independientemente de mi destino personal ya esta revolución tiene su impulso dado”. ¿Prophetic words?. ¿Is Chávez saying goodbye?, ¿Is Jaua trying to hold his tears?. Chávez as usual enter in contradiction. The rumours were that he was in Cuba and that he was going to have an operation. He just confirmed it. And start saying that he is OK but the speech turns to a melancholy tone. I feel tempted to schadenfreude, but we have enough information? or still rumours?
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¿Is Jaua trying to hold his tears?
Nah. I didn’t see that at all. Jaua normally has his lips in a downturn mode.
And melancholy tone? Nope, didn’t perceive that, either. More factual than anything else, delivered with strength and with a positive ending.
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I am sorry Hugo, but I am fighting hard to contain a smile, every time I lower my guard, a crooked smile appears.
Well, I guess its time to do las maletas!
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For sure very interesting situation with his candidature. What would he do, try until debacle or step down?
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Actually that may be a good plan as long as he can stand up & talk.
Not good for us but if he could last long enough it might give them an excuse to cancel the election.
What does the law say about an election candidate that is unable to continue for death or medical reasons before the actual election??
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Well, without reading the constitution I’d say a person that doesn’t exist can’t simply run. But the elections keep going. What they can do is replace the candidate for another.
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I can only quote a tweet from Eugenio G. Martínez @puzkas (Periodista especializado en la cobertura electoral):
“Un dato a considerar: CNE aún no realiza la convocatoria oficial de la elección del 7 de octubre (esta no ha aparecido en Gaceta Electoral)”
Can the CNE now postpone the presidential election? with this tweet, the answer is:
YES!!
Don’t Know if they will… Amanecera y veremos!!!
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I kinda wish him a full recovery so we can win in October “en buena lid”… although I’m not sure 100% of that judgement…
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I think the signal of how bad his situation is will be if he changes the VP. That action would tell me that his situation is dire.
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Roy that assumes that he isn’t in total denial about this.
One of the rumours was that the operation was scheduled for this weekend & he chickened out.
The information was in the public domain on the 14th when Bocaranda first published the news. It wasn’t like he had to go to Cuba to confirm this or take his family with him.
It’s more believable that they all went with the intention of having the operation completed & he just simply backed out.
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Interesting interpretation… You might be right.
Thinking about it, it pisses me off that we are put in the position of trying to parse these limited statements. In real democracies, they trot out the doctors in the press conference to provide full medical details and a complete prognosis.
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“real democracies”
Therein lies the rub
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“For in that sleep of death, what dreams may come”
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This has shakespeare all over it.
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#noesrumoresuntumor has it that he backed off the operation now in order to come back and fight @hcapriles… y no dejarle el campo abierto. call attention back on himself ( which he has clearly done) up the pity party and then go for the operation. this guy is wily as a fox. no da puntada sin hilo.
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I agree but the problem is that this signal is endogenous. That is, in it Chavez’s own decision to change the VP. So, if Chavez is very ill (that’s the interesting case for this analysis), he can postpone that decision until very last minute in which case the signal won’t have much value because the truth behind that signal would be revealed shortly after. Now the question is whether he’d postponed changing the VP until the very last minute or not. If everybody believes that changing VP is a very revealing signal of his (bad) health status and Chavez wants to hide the truth as long as possible, then his dominant strategy is to wait as much as possible before changing VP (assuming that Jau is not the right guy to take control of the gov’t). In fact, if you take this argument to the limit, we may never see a VP change.
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This is why you should never invite a Game Theorist to a partida de dominó!!!!
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Wow! Remind me not to play chess against you.
Your argument assumes that he will wait till the last moment. This could be correct, but it is not a given. He will face pressures from the inner circle to make that decision sooner rather than later. Plus, assuming he has accepted his mortality, he does care about his legacy. His narcissism leads him to want statues of himself in plazas. His best chance of that lies in his “revolution” continuing. In order for that to happen, he needs to anoint a successor.
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Good point but the VP change could still happen at the very last minute. At (almost) the very same moment when Chavez also abandons his candidacy. The point is that the VP change may not signal much or anything at all because it happens at virtually the same time when the truth is revealed.
Maybe a more informative signal will be whether they stick to Oct-7 as the date for the presidential election or when they confirm that date (apparently the CNE is supposed to confirm it in March).
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I don’t think the change of VP is relevant. Chavez has recently promoted the narco military to the positions they will need to be in to ensure a military government on his “retirement.” I truly believed this is his mitigation to his demise.
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The sad thing about that is playing the game as if there is something you can do after you pass to the other side. Preparing and leaving people in the “right posts” is so stupid from a human point of view.
But it is also delusional from the political point of view. Doesn’t he KNOW that Mao Zedong was not able to KNOW that his “Band of the 4” lost ALL power less than a month after his dead, precisely because he was dead?
There is not a single thing that Chavez prepares for after his dead that can be permanent. In fact, violently or not, when the guy turn at the bat is consumed, everything WILL change. The manager, the players, the playing field. And the sport will develop new rules. Just like in China.
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some thought inversion is due here:
It is not Chavez that has prepared for his parting by designating key narcogenerals in place,
it is key narcogenerals that have preared for Chavez’s “sneaker hanging” (Guindar los tennis!) by being designated to key positions, and their handlers of course.
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Interesting point from Eugenio Martinez (puzkas) twitter account:
http://twitter.com/#!/puzkas
“Un dato a considerar: CNE aún no realiza la convocatoria oficial de la elección del 7 de octubre”
The presidential election has not yet been officially called. It was supposed to to be done by March. Now, who knows if the election could end up in December after all, mergered with the governor’s election. After Tibi’s about-face on the “cuadernos” issue, anything is possible.
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Already on the BBC website and quite good ending: …Capriles hopes Mr Chavez leads a long life, “so he can see the changes that are coming in Venezuela”. :)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-17120914
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Removing Chavez from Venezuela politics is not enough. Chavez image must be destroyed as well. His domestic policies must be thoroughly shown to have perpetuated and increased poverty, crime, and corruption. Chavez foreign policy must be shown to be a negative factor in world peace, freedoms, and human rights.
Let Chavez live. We need to expose all that he done. Please don’t let Chavez turn into another Che Guevara.
Hopefully Chavez will find refuge in one of the Latin America countries that has supported his destruction of Venezuela.
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If that were all it takes, Castro’s Cuba should have discredited Communism/Socialism a long, long time ago.
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How would Alfred E. Neuman look with a puffed up face and a ‘berruga’ on his forehead?
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I meant to answer Guido, below.
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Even worse, Perón. I’m fine with Ch as Guevara, then I can point and laugh. Turning into Perón would poison our political life for decades
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Guido, IMO you have the tense wrong:
Chavez HAS poisoned our political life for decades.
Unless the myth is defused explicitly and systematically, we will be seeing its effects down the road for some time to come.
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Definition of “Lesion”.:
“A lesion is any abnormality in the tissue of an organism (in layman’s terms, “damage”), usually caused by disease or trauma. Lesion is derived from the Latin word laesio which means injury.
“Because the definition of a lesion is so broad, the varieties of lesions are virtually endless. Lesions can occur anywhere in the body that consists of soft tissue or matter, though most frequently found in the mouth, skin, and the brain. They are subsequently classified by their features. If a lesion is caused by a tumor it will be classified as malignant or benign.”
So, there you go… The use of the word doesn’t specify much. However, I think it is safe to interpret it in this context as being another cancerous tumor.
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Message to MUD and to Capriles Radonski, Presidential Candidate:
Stay… on target!
Regardless. If Hugo cannot run for Oct. 7 too bad for him. If Hugo can run but will be in a terrible state as a result, too bad for him. If this slows him down for Oct. 7 too bad for him. There’s still an election to win, Hugo can always retire if his health is a concern, we are not forcing him to try and rule until 2031, that’s for sure. A pity, really…
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I disagree that the daughter is fighting back tears. I think she looks like someone with somethng in her eye who doesn’t want to smear her makeup. She looks quite bored to me.
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agree. daughter looked bored. Like she’d rather be doing something else.
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I think at the moment they didn’t realize the situation. Look at Jaua, it seems like he didn’t knew exactly (he opens the mouth as Chavez tell of the lesion). Chavez has told them something like all is ok before… Don’t worry
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This is offtopic, but I came across this lady’s Twitter account by reading the replies to Chavez latest tweet:
http://twitter.com/Gracielyrosi
She seems to be trying to get in touch with Hugo asking for a job for the past 2 years, the whole thing is depressing.
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Jeezzz… Imagine five million people discovering all at once that the Great and Powerful Oz was a fraud.
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Lol this is priceless, she even describe the store “me gustaria…” go to the street and work lady, nothing worthy that lasts in this word is for free…
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Is it me, or all of this health “crisis” has come in moments were there was a real threat to Chavez popularity?
Call me desconfiado but I think this is just a tactic to call on the visceras of his followers, his promises are no longer delivering, neither the threat of capitalismo, his last resort is sentimentalism, that alleged father-son link with the lowest social class in Venezuela.
He obviously couldn’t stop Capriles momentum after his victory, so he uses his last card.
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We Were thinking the same at the same time. Lol.
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Juan / Quico:
What is the best scenario for the Government? 1. Chavez with cancer (people supporting the weak man) or 2. Almigthy Chavez (people trusted in “strong” leader).
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Words from my husband sitting beside me: “he is feeling he’s losing the presidencial running so he is just trying to get some sympathy.”
Based on the record, big chances are that Chavez is lying once again, right?
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I agree with you, trying to withdraw attention on Capriles…
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the man is more deformed than java the hut, no way he’s faking it.
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Chavez know his cancer is a double edged sword, yes he
gets the sympathy vote, but it also makes him look weak,
additionally a lot of his supporters don’t like his ministers
and if it looks like he might not be able to function as president
may feel their vote for him may go to one of his ministers.
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Chavez during a phone call to a VTV show a while ago “I made the decision, the procedure is going to be made at Havana, Cuba, there’s more security there for this kind of procedure”.
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“this kind of security”? He means that the truth can’t get out!
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So…
Bocaranda was right?
OOps…
that’s a first… isn’t it?
there are some “We are sorry” in the way, aren`t they?
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JC, son’t turn into one of those on us. Holding back tears?
Come now…
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I think the caudillo is definitely his own twitter:
“Dios les pague tanta solidaridad, tanto Amor, mis amados y amadas Compatriotas! Viviré! Viviremos! Venceremos! Hasta la Victoria Siempre!”
He twitted three times yesterday after a silence of over a month and after progressive disappearance of his tweets in the last few months
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Maybe he is following this blog and read your comment…
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