As of 6:51 p.m., based on numerous sources, we can safely predict Henrique Capriles has won the opposition’s nomination.
Congratulations to all the candidates for a great primary. On to October, united we stand.
UPDATE:
It’s too early to predict a margin. However, here’s a number for you (and take this with a big lump of salt): loyal reader Omar is in charge of the quick count for the Capriles campaign. He says
“Random stratified sample:
HCR 60.2, PP 36.1, MCM 2.3, DA 0,7. Margin of error, +/- 3.5%.”
UPDATE 2:
Second quick count. Error of +/- 3%. Capriles 61.4%, Perez 34.7%, Machado 2.6%, Arria 0.8%, Medina 0.5%.
UPDATE 3:
MUD’s numbers seem to match Omar’s. I guess I’ll be eating that “big lump of salt” I wrote about earlier on a nice slice of humble pie.
UPDATE 4:
El Nacional says, “So far, Capriles has 1,722,422 votes, followed by Pablo Perez with 844,562 and in third place María Corina Machado with 96,954”. That’s 2.66 million votes. Huge!
UPDATE 5:
Omar, in unbelievable circumstances, designed a flawless quick count. KUDOS!!!
How much?
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Too soon to tell.
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And the percentage of people who voted?
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Ganó Capriles, está claro, y ganó la participación. Y ahora a apoyarlo con convicción y con los dedos cruzados porque no se polarizen las eleccioines con ese discurso terrible y simplista de oligarca vs salvador del pueblo. Ahora más que nunca tenemos que hacer que la juventud, tolerancia, eficacia y entrega de Capriles sean los factores que le ganen al atraso, ineficiencia e intolerancia del Chavismo. Que ganemos en Octubre, que es lo que importa!
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Forgot this is an english blog… oh well….
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OMG, you said it before an official source. El Silbón will pull you from your ankles at night.
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La Sayucena
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Ist das Trujillanisch?
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keine ahnung…
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Nein. La Sayona Lucena.
Ich spreche keine Deustch!
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If true, are excelent news, he is the only candidate that have a chance against Chavez.
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I’ll wait to confirm it with the official bulletin. But, given your track record, I believe you a little bit.
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We wouldn’t call it if we weren’t sure.
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OK then. You guys got better data than I do. I have no reason to doubt it.
Sad there’s not a great TV election coverage. Globo is doing a great job, given the limitations they have. VV is just lame (long ago were the days of Democracia 88, with the best opening and theme done in our history). Televen is not even trying.
I would love to see an epic opening to election night coverage here. Here’s my favorite intro of all time. Even if is from 20 years ago, you can see how awesome is the look and the studio. The intro is the 1st minute.
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yaaaaayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy ;D
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@vvperiodistas is insinuating crazy turnout numbers. what do you say?
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he won in Berlin,
Perez came in second and
Machado third….
not that these votes make a hell of a difference….
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Let’s wait and see how they did in Los Guayos, Maturín, Punto Fijo and Guanare;
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I’m really curious about that too.
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Here’s a number for you:
Loyal reader Omar is in charge of the quick count for the Capriles campaign.
Random stratified sample:
HCR 60.2, PP 36.1, MCM 2.3, DA 0,7. Margin of error, +/- 3.5%.
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Well pretty much as expected, no surprises then!
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Wow..!!!
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A 60% victory… That will erase all questions and doubts. #LaUnidadEsIncuestionable
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Wow, MCM 2,3% is dissapointing to say the very least…
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Not if you had any contact with Venezuelans living in Venezuela around campaign time. I was stunned to find that even the most natural of MCM allies made themselves dislike her so that they could offer their votes to a winner.
I don’t like her ideals, but she has been extremely impressive. I hope she stays a diputada and that, if a senate is reinstated, that she becomes senadora.
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Puede ser eso de que el venezolano “vota a ganador” – las encuestas pudieron ayudar mucho…
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La economia del voto. The race polarized in the last days. Disappointed, not surprised.
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i also hope she continues being a diputada, and become a senadora, she does have a future…
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“HCR 60.2, PP 36.1, MCM 2.3, DA 0,7. Margin of error, +/- 3.5%.”
Let’s assume that, plus a total number of votes of 2.8M
If we also assume what was posted on “Machine Man”, PP getting 530000 votes on zulia, that would leave PP with 480K votes outside Zulia, that would amount to the 17% of the national total
a) Is capriles THAT good?
b) is pablo perez THAT bad?
c) both
or
d) the “maquinaria” is dead
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When the final data is available and after some number-crunching, we’ll find out.
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b) and d)
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Well, as geha said, lets wait
If indeed the maquinaria is dead, how well do the other parties do on getting the vote on the monteyculebresque venezuela, because supposedly, there’s where AD gets the vote, I think that is a critical question for the upcoming 7-O election, because no matter how well we do on big cities, no matter how many ninis and chavistas we might turn them to the oppo field, the election will be won out there, where the bipolar capibaras dance and there are more flying roaches than birds in the sky.
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And with the unlimited checkbook, debit card and credit card at hand, this won’t just be uphill, this will be up-Himalaya hard. Chavismo will do anything and everything to not lose this election. If they have to take us broke like Greece in a Brewster’s Millions kind of campaign, they will. I have already picture it and it won’t be pretty.
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d)
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La maquinaria fue mas bulla que la cabuya.
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According to Ravell, Capriles only lost in zulia
It would have been very interesing if PP had lost here too
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I want to see how Capriles did in Zulia.
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their maquinaria
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Do you have turnout numbers..?
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JC and quico i’m reading turnout numbers from 2.800.000 to an exaggerated? 4.470.000 votes. is this numbre really possible or twittexaggerations? also a HCR win of 24% to 30%??
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7.691 mesas, 9 hours of voting, let’s assume 1 minute per vote, let’s assume perfectly efficient distribution of voters across tables.
The maximum number of votes in non-stop voting would be.4,153,140.
So it’s not possible to have 4,470,000 votes. 3 million I called that number at 1pm in another post. That’s our most optimistic yet realistic scenario.
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3 million is not impossible, but is hard to get there. 4 million, not happening in a primary.
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yes guys, i agree…that’s why i’m running it thru you! you know how they exaggerate in social media ;)
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I dont think it will be that high.
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people are still voting though. It’s gonna be a great night for us and a terrible night for Sauron
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Capriles won all states but Zulia, way to go!
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Amazing.
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i’m VERY happy for our new FRODO, at least tonight i’m going to eat cake and hope sauron :p
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Capriles has really articulated the opposition vision well today. Incredible presentation and poise. I’d almost call him presidential. Mil puntos.
Interesting the clear signals from MUD and all of a break from Punto Fijo. They even included a #ventajismo accusation against Pérez to drive the point home. I am very interested to see how this new united team comes together. It will need to to motivate the grassroots support necessary for 7O.
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Maria Corina conceded to Capriles.
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She obviously reads Caracas Chronicles.
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Caracas Chronicles: What venezuela’s power brokers read.
warning: the definition of power brokers may differ.
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Ojala que PP este ahi con HCR para el anuncio. (Ojala esten todos)
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Apparently, he’s going to.
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Well, just heard MCM on the radio say she is headed to HCRs bash. I am hoping for a complete show of unity around HCR.
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Inhope there is a photo, or a better yet, a video.
I’m waiting anxiously….
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I’m watching it live from Globovision website: http://globovision.com/envivo.htm still waiting for Henrique.
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To give you a idea of turnout in two voting centers in Prados del Este – Baruta area:
Cuaderno de Votacion no. 1, 3 mesas, 6 /15 persons had voted on 2:30 pm
Cuaderno de votacion no. 2 (diifferent voting center) 3 mesas with 900+ persons each, 14/15 persons at 4:40 pm. Best I have ever seen at noon in this last center is around 4 – 6 / 15.
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Reblogged this on Democracy News from Venezuela and commented:
An excellent summary of today’s results as well as informed conversation.
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The “maquinaria” is a myth…
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Nonsense. The maquinaria is real and here is the proof: http://www.elchiguirebipolar.net/12-02-2012/maquinaria-de-ad-resulta-ser-una-secadora-vieja-en-la-casa-de-henry-ramos-allup/
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Hahahaha!… Dinosaurios will be dinosaurios. “@hramosallup Cierra la primera mesa en Australia:Pablo Perez 47.5. Henrique Capriles 31.6. Diego Arria 3.5. Maria Corina 1.6 Pablo Medina 0 Votos.”
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If AD wants to survive, Ramos Allup should resign ASAP. Of course, he won’t.
Let’s see how long it last. Ditto with COPEI, if they don’t split first.
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“Pablo Perez es como Buzz Lightyear antes de darse cuenta de que era un juguete” – someone from Twitter.
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Funniest tweet of the night:
“Pastor Maldonado se solidariza con Pablo Medina. “Uno se acostumbra”, le dijo.”
ROTFLMAO!
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Maybe 2nd best… For me this one ruled all: “MCM -Y yo les digo a los venezolanos, el niño Jesus son tus papás!-Globovision: Breve pausa y seguiiiimos!!!!!
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Jeje… sounds like El Chiguire words…
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A stupid one I read:
“Ganamos! Chavez no saco no un voto”
Alicia Machado
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A stupid one I read:
“Ganamos! Chavez no saco ni un voto”
Alicia Machado
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No comment on Capriles’s new ad?
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Is it new?
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It’s really good. The campaign can do three or even four good 30 second ads from there. It doesn’t reinvent the wheel, but is good for what it is. No creepy close-up is a plus. Good job. The HCR campaign has been flawless during this primary.
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Yes, it’s new.
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WIll the other oppo parties now stand with the results?
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Pablo Medina will call for a recount, just for tradition’s sake :)
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2.784.714 Medio Cambur!
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Incredible… Nobody even dreamed of that many votes!
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3million!!! on the butche!!!!
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First: Take a bow, Venezuela. We did it. I’m so proud of my country tonight. #12F2012DiaHistorico
The time has come. The official report is about to go public. Well done, MUD. You pulled it off.
Take it away, Joker.
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Almost 3 million voters!
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3 MILLONES… FUCK YEAH.
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HCR won 2 to 1. UN-FREAKING-BELIEVABLE!
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I’m speechless.
People, standing ovation for Omar. Some day he will tell us about the unbelievable circumstances in which he had to design his quick count. And he nailed it!
We have some incredible readers.
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We have a tool for October!!
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No tengo amigo “guevón”!
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Nuestro amigo es notable, maracucho tenía que ser!
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Pablo Perez will concede. Let’s watch.
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80% support from Zulia. That shows he is a good governor. Great ally in the fight against Sauron. I can’t believe we achieved the greatest scenario possible tonite :)
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More grist for the mill: lo unico que cruza el puente es la gaita…
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In Valencia we have a radio station that promotes itself as the only radio that guarantees no gaita ever.
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Hahaha
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y desgraciadamente para ti, pablo perez se llevo el 80% de los votos del Zulia, a pesar de la derrota obtiene una victoria. creo que ya es momento que dejes ese odio tan enfermizo contra pablo perez, UNT y cualqueir cosa que huela a patacon, por que de ahora en adelante es mas lo que va a necesitar capriles a UNT que UNT a capriles para lograr derrotar al demonio en octubre… la maquinaria puede estar muerta en el resto del pais, ad y copei pueden estar muertos, pero la de UNT esta viva en el Zulia y esa maquinaria ahora también es de capriles, en honor a los 3 millones de venezolanos que votaron por la unidad… deja de escupir tanto odio… que desde este moentos volvemos a ser uno solo! y todos somos necesarios para superar los desafíos que nos esperan.
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Pablo Pérez = classy guy.
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It’s been a good speech so far “mi pana Henrique, tu serás el próximo presidente de Venezuela”.
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Co-signed. Tip of the hat to him.
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Nice concession speech from PP. Clearly a bittersweet moment from him, but this is a classy bow from him.
“And keep in mind, the 2,900,000 count comes from the CNE, not us”. Nice dig, there :)
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caracas chronicles nunca lo deja mal parado uno. “I don’t always predict results but when I do I do it to the second decimal” — Caracas Chronicles
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The most interesting blog about Venezuela in the world.
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Datazo el que dieron por aqui, espero que para el 7O lo hagan de nuevo.
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