Henrique Capriles wins the opposition’s nomination

As of 6:51 p.m., based on numerous sources, we can safely predict Henrique Capriles has won the opposition’s nomination.

Congratulations to all the candidates for a great primary. On to October, united we stand.


It’s too early to predict a margin. However, here’s a number for you (and take this with a big lump of salt): loyal reader Omar is in charge of the quick count for the Capriles campaign. He says

“Random stratified sample:

HCR 60.2, PP 36.1, MCM 2.3, DA 0,7. Margin of error, +/- 3.5%.”


Second quick count. Error of +/- 3%. Capriles 61.4%, Perez 34.7%, Machado 2.6%, Arria 0.8%, Medina 0.5%.


MUD’s numbers seem to match Omar’s. I guess I’ll be eating that “big lump of salt” I wrote about earlier on a nice slice of humble pie.


El Nacional says, “So far, Capriles has 1,722,422 votes, followed by Pablo Perez with 844,562 and in third place María Corina Machado with 96,954”. That’s 2.66 million votes.   Huge!


Omar, in unbelievable circumstances, designed a flawless quick count. KUDOS!!!

100 thoughts on “Henrique Capriles wins the opposition’s nomination

    • Ganó Capriles, está claro, y ganó la participación. Y ahora a apoyarlo con convicción y con los dedos cruzados porque no se polarizen las eleccioines con ese discurso terrible y simplista de oligarca vs salvador del pueblo. Ahora más que nunca tenemos que hacer que la juventud, tolerancia, eficacia y entrega de Capriles sean los factores que le ganen al atraso, ineficiencia e intolerancia del Chavismo. Que ganemos en Octubre, que es lo que importa!


      • OK then. You guys got better data than I do. I have no reason to doubt it.

        Sad there’s not a great TV election coverage. Globo is doing a great job, given the limitations they have. VV is just lame (long ago were the days of Democracia 88, with the best opening and theme done in our history). Televen is not even trying.

        I would love to see an epic opening to election night coverage here. Here’s my favorite intro of all time. Even if is from 20 years ago, you can see how awesome is the look and the studio. The intro is the 1st minute.


  1. Here’s a number for you:

    Loyal reader Omar is in charge of the quick count for the Capriles campaign.

    Random stratified sample:
    HCR 60.2, PP 36.1, MCM 2.3, DA 0,7. Margin of error, +/- 3.5%.


    • Not if you had any contact with Venezuelans living in Venezuela around campaign time. I was stunned to find that even the most natural of MCM allies made themselves dislike her so that they could offer their votes to a winner.

      I don’t like her ideals, but she has been extremely impressive. I hope she stays a diputada and that, if a senate is reinstated, that she becomes senadora.


  2. “HCR 60.2, PP 36.1, MCM 2.3, DA 0,7. Margin of error, +/- 3.5%.”

    Let’s assume that, plus a total number of votes of 2.8M

    If we also assume what was posted on “Machine Man”, PP getting 530000 votes on zulia, that would leave PP with 480K votes outside Zulia, that would amount to the 17% of the national total

    a) Is capriles THAT good?
    b) is pablo perez THAT bad?
    c) both
    d) the “maquinaria” is dead


      • Well, as geha said, lets wait

        If indeed the maquinaria is dead, how well do the other parties do on getting the vote on the monteyculebresque venezuela, because supposedly, there’s where AD gets the vote, I think that is a critical question for the upcoming 7-O election, because no matter how well we do on big cities, no matter how many ninis and chavistas we might turn them to the oppo field, the election will be won out there, where the bipolar capibaras dance and there are more flying roaches than birds in the sky.


        • And with the unlimited checkbook, debit card and credit card at hand, this won’t just be uphill, this will be up-Himalaya hard. Chavismo will do anything and everything to not lose this election. If they have to take us broke like Greece in a Brewster’s Millions kind of campaign, they will. I have already picture it and it won’t be pretty.


  3. JC and quico i’m reading turnout numbers from 2.800.000 to an exaggerated? 4.470.000 votes. is this numbre really possible or twittexaggerations? also a HCR win of 24% to 30%??


    • 7.691 mesas, 9 hours of voting, let’s assume 1 minute per vote, let’s assume perfectly efficient distribution of voters across tables.

      The maximum number of votes in non-stop voting would be.4,153,140.

      So it’s not possible to have 4,470,000 votes. 3 million I called that number at 1pm in another post. That’s our most optimistic yet realistic scenario.


  4. Capriles has really articulated the opposition vision well today. Incredible presentation and poise. I’d almost call him presidential. Mil puntos.

    Interesting the clear signals from MUD and all of a break from Punto Fijo. They even included a #ventajismo accusation against Pérez to drive the point home. I am very interested to see how this new united team comes together. It will need to to motivate the grassroots support necessary for 7O.


  5. Well, just heard MCM on the radio say she is headed to HCRs bash. I am hoping for a complete show of unity around HCR.


  6. To give you a idea of turnout in two voting centers in Prados del Este – Baruta area:

    Cuaderno de Votacion no. 1, 3 mesas, 6 /15 persons had voted on 2:30 pm
    Cuaderno de votacion no. 2 (diifferent voting center) 3 mesas with 900+ persons each, 14/15 persons at 4:40 pm. Best I have ever seen at noon in this last center is around 4 – 6 / 15.


  7. First: Take a bow, Venezuela. We did it. I’m so proud of my country tonight. #12F2012DiaHistorico

    The time has come. The official report is about to go public. Well done, MUD. You pulled it off.

    Take it away, Joker.


  8. I’m speechless.

    People, standing ovation for Omar. Some day he will tell us about the unbelievable circumstances in which he had to design his quick count. And he nailed it!

    We have some incredible readers.


    • 80% support from Zulia. That shows he is a good governor. Great ally in the fight against Sauron. I can’t believe we achieved the greatest scenario possible tonite :)


        • y desgraciadamente para ti, pablo perez se llevo el 80% de los votos del Zulia, a pesar de la derrota obtiene una victoria. creo que ya es momento que dejes ese odio tan enfermizo contra pablo perez, UNT y cualqueir cosa que huela a patacon, por que de ahora en adelante es mas lo que va a necesitar capriles a UNT que UNT a capriles para lograr derrotar al demonio en octubre… la maquinaria puede estar muerta en el resto del pais, ad y copei pueden estar muertos, pero la de UNT esta viva en el Zulia y esa maquinaria ahora también es de capriles, en honor a los 3 millones de venezolanos que votaron por la unidad… deja de escupir tanto odio… que desde este moentos volvemos a ser uno solo! y todos somos necesarios para superar los desafíos que nos esperan.


  9. Nice concession speech from PP. Clearly a bittersweet moment from him, but this is a classy bow from him.

    “And keep in mind, the 2,900,000 count comes from the CNE, not us”. Nice dig, there :)


  10. caracas chronicles nunca lo deja mal parado uno. “I don’t always predict results but when I do I do it to the second decimal” — Caracas Chronicles


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