Check (Updated)

The Carabobo newspaper Notitarde is citing unnamed sources as saying Venezuela’s Electoral Council is considering holding the Presidential elections in July or August of next year. In the case of July, it would leave the opposition’s candidate (supposed to be elected in a February 2012 primary) all of five months to campaign.

The MUD has already said that they will not change the primary date.

Update: Unnamed sources at the CNE are denying they are considering this. Which can mean anything, really.

20 thoughts on “Check (Updated)

  1. I am going to refrain myself from saying I said so… Upss, I said it.
    So, if the MUD doesn’t move up the date we won’t have primaries because the CNE will not organize the event in February having primaries in July or August. They will be “focused” on organizing the election, they will not dedicate resources to an opposition primary. It really makes sense for them to try to avoid helping the opposition select an unitary candidate legitimated by an open election.
    And if we don’t have a primary we will end up with a Dinosaur.


    • Can someone in the MUD call an emergency meeting to advance the primaries? Is it really so hard to see that the primaries should be held ASAP?


  2. Moraima … it’s good to be right! We’ll have Chavez forever, but at least our political instincts will remain unimpeachable. ;)


  3. Well, apparently somebody heard your prayers/complaints and the MUD is currently busy at work trying to move the primary date to November 2011. Congratulations.

    Of course, the CNE has already prepared a statement that due to unforeseen circumstances (i.e., the impending end of the world in 2012), they will be forced to move the presidential elections to February 2012, and that if the MUD keeps insisting on electing a candidate, they’ll might just keep moving it up or even getting rid of the election altogether.

    And of course, we all applaud Kepler’s idea of impaling the leaders of the MUD instead of, say, the dictator and his henchmen. Clearly, that’s the attitude that will end this nightmare.


    • Hi all,

      We did the firmazo and reafirmazo once…If CNE does not want to help us with the organization of the primaries, and keep on advancing the presidential elections even as early as February 2012, we may consider doing it ourselves.

      The risk of not having a democratically elected candidate in the opposition is so big, that is worth to think about that possibility.


  4. I couldn’t dare to impeach your political instincts, but, so far, it seems like we might be fretting over a rumour, like the many we’ve had over the years. It could be one of those false leaks that try to fluster the opposition.

    Whose congressmen (and WHY congressmen) told Notitarde of the alleged polling date?


  5. I think for or five months is plenty sufficient for the campaign. The social space involved in this campaign is “hot” and “tight”. I have always cautioned against a long drawn out campaign. However, I suspect, that this rumor is designed to make the Oppo show their hand a little. The best reaction to this is none at all.


  6. Come now. “Only” five months to campaign?

    The U.S. Presidential campaign is only 2-4 months long (from nominating convention to election). Granted that the conventions have been largely formalities in recent years, and that the general election campaign actually starts earlier. One still can find many earlier campaigns that were less than five months.

    The contentious Democrat national convention of 1968 was at the end of August, so the campaign was only a little over two months before the election in early November. The contested DNC of 1952 was in late July, for a 3 1/2 month campaign. Franklin Roosevelt’s 1940 renomination was held off till the convention in mid-July.

    From 1900 to 1936, neither convention was held before June, and the DNC was often in July.

    The current Canadian election was called on March 26, and will be held on May 2 – 38 days.

    I can’t see how the MUD can make a case to the voters in six months or eight months that they can’t make in five months.

    I would further suggest that the longer the campaign, the greater the opportunity for the Chavez regime to find some “gotcha” to discredit the opposition. Also, the longer campaign will require more money and work, potentially exhausting the opposition. (The Chavistas with their state subsidies can campaign forever.)

    If popular sentiment really is against Chavez, a short campaign will succeed. If not, no amount of campaigning will bring it over.


    • Good analysis, except we’re not gringos, Rich.

      WE need more time to campaign because we do things the old fashioned way……2 hours late.


      • Roberto N,

        I agree with Rich, and I think the excuse that “we are not Gringos”, doesn’t hold water. I thing that the anxiousness to hold the primaries earlier and campaign longer is simple impatience. Right now, we are all in a kind of “holding pattern”, not being able to do any sort of long term planning. The future depends on this election, and until that future is resolved (for better or worse), no one is moving forward with their lives or business. People simply want to “get on with it”, and thus we see this clamor for earlier primaries.


  7. One other comment: that chess position is not as decisive as it looks at first glance.

    … K-R2 is forced, allowing RxQ. White is up a B and 2 Ps.

    But then K-N3, “forking” White’s R and B. R-R3 saves the R, then …KxB, RxP check, and White is now up only 3 Ps. This should still be a win for W, but not an easy win.

    If Black could have avoided the loss of his Q, he would have had an easy win, so perhaps there was a major blunder by Black.


    • Nice! I like your thinking. I had another random chess picture before, but I figured I could at least get a picture of an actual Check.


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